2 ISSN 2334-3745 February 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 1 Articles Ansar al-Sharia in Libya: An Enduring Threat by Henrik Gråtrud and Vidar Benjamin Skretting Abstract Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) is one of the most powerful jihadi groups in Libya and it might, in fact, represent a more signiicant long-term threat than IS’ provinces in Libya. However, there are few recent studies of ASL, so exactly what kind of threat the group poses has not been adequately understood. Ater examining the group’s evolution, ideology, strategy and violent activities, we ind that ASL is, and most likely will remain, more of a local and regional threat than a global one. he group still poses a signiicant threat to Western interests, as it has carried out attacks against Western targets in Libya, has close ties to al-Qaida, and operates training camps for international jihadis within its territory. Keywords: Jihadism, ASL, threat, Libya, dataset Introduction T he attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on 11 September 2012 brought the al-Qaida-linked group Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) into the international spotlight. Once widely considered the most powerful jihadi group in Libya, ASL’s activities have been largely overshadowed by the Islamic State’s (IS) presence in the country since late 2014 and, as a result, most recent studies of jihadi groups in Libya have focused on IS.[1] However, ASL might represent a more signiicant long-term threat than IS in Libya due to its close ties to other Islamist and jihadi groups in the country. While some analysts have briely examined the threat from ASL,[2] this topic merits further attention, as there is no in-depth study of what type of threat the group poses today. his article aims to further the understanding of ASL by addressing two questions: What kind of threat does ASL pose? Is the group mainly a local and regional threat, or is it also a global one? hreats are usually understood in terms of intent and capability, and our analysis revolves around these dimensions. First, to get an idea of the current state of ASL and its priorities, we have examined the group’s evolution, ideology and strategy. We based this part of the study on the group’s propaganda output, including communiqués and audiovisual productions, in addition to secondary sources. Second, we sought to establish key features of ASL’s violent activities, such as target selection and tactics. For this purpose we compiled a dataset of ASL’s violent activities dating back to the attack on the U.S. Consulate on 11 September 2012. Our data suggest that ASL is, and most likely will remain, more of a local and regional threat than a global one. he group has neither carried out any attacks outside of Libya, nor has it released any oicial propaganda output in which it explicitly threatens to internationalise its operations. Yet ASL still poses a threat to Western interests, as it has carried out attacks against Western targets in Libya, maintains close ties to al-Qaida, and operates training camps for international jihadis within its territory. he article has four parts. First, we take a brief look at the post-revolutionary political landscape in Libya that has allowed ASL to emerge and proliferate. Second, we examine the group’s evolution, ideology and strategy. hird, we take a closer look at the group’s violent activities. Finally, we discuss what the group’s background and activities tell us about the type of threat it poses, before we conclude with a brief assessment of what could be expected from ASL in the future.