CSEIT172155 | Received: 22 Feb 2017 | Accepted: 28 Feb 2017 | January-February-2017 [(2)1: 225-230 ]
International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science, Engineering and Information Technology
© 2017 IJSRCSEIT | Volume 2 | Issue 1 | ISSN : 2456-3307
225
An Optimal Churn Prediction Model using Support Vector
Machine with Adaboost
A. Saran Kumar, Dr. D. Chandrakala
Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
ABSTRACT
Customer churn is a common measure of lost customers. By minimizing churn, a company can maximize its profits.
Companies have recognized that existing customers are most valuable assets. Customer retention is important for a
good marketing and a customer relationship management strategy. In this paper, a detailed scheme is worked out to
convert raw customer data into meaningful and useful data that suits modelling buying behaviour and in turn to
convert this meaningful data into knowledge for which predictive data mining techniques are adopted. In this work,
a boosted version of SVM which is a combination of SVM with Adaboost is used for increasing the accuracy of
generated rules. Boosted versions have high accuracy and performance than non-boosted versions. The aim of churn
prediction model is to detect the customers with high tendency to leave the firm and also increase the revenue for
the firm.
Keywords : Churn, Adaboost, SVM, Classification and Prediction.
I. INTRODUCTION
Data classification is the process of sorting and categorizing
data into various types or any other distinct class. Data
classification enables the separation and classification of data
according to data set requirements for various business
objectives [1]. It is mainly a data management process.
Classification in data mining consists of predicting a
particular outcome based on the given input [2]. In order to
predict the outcome, the algorithm processes a training set
containing a set of attributes and the respective outcome,
usually called goal or prediction attribute [3]. The algorithm
tries to find relationships between the attributes that would
make it possible to predict the outcome. Next the algorithm is
given a data set not seen before, which is called as prediction
set, that contains the same set of attributes, except for the
prediction attribute – not yet known. The algorithm analyses
the input and produces a prediction. The prediction accuracy
defines how “good” the algorithm is [4]. Classification
models predict categorical class labels; and prediction models
predict continuous valued functions [5]. For example, we can
build a model to classify bank loan applications as either safe
or risky, or a prediction model to predict the expenditures in
dollars of potential customers on computer equipment given
their income and occupation.
Data mining tools predict patterns and behaviors, allowing
businesses to effect knowledge-driven decisions [6]. The
automated, prospective analyses offered by data mining tools
move beyond the analysis of past events provided by
retrospective tools typical of decision support system.
Customer churn is a marketing-related term which means
customers defect to another supplier or purchase less [7]. As
existing customers are an important source of business
profits, being able to identify customers who show signs that
they are about to leave can create more income for
businesses. This is especially more important for online
customers, as the phenomenon of customer churn appears to
be very rapid and difficult to grasp. If companies do not take
measures to hold customers before their status deteriorates,
the customers may never come back, resulting in wasted
investment and loss of income. A timely retention strategy
can keep customers, and it is the best way to retain customers
[8].
II. METHODS AND MATERIAL
A. Related Work
In [9] authors study, a framework with ensemble
techniques is presented for customer churn prediction