605 AC TO RS’ MOVES AND STRA TEG IES: THE MA C TO R METHO D An air transport case study Michel Godet This article describes and applies the MACTOR method in futures studies-an analytical method based on a matrix of alliances and conflicts-which makes better use of informational added value con- tained in actors’ strategy tables. Guidelines are given for application of the method through a case study of the behaviour of actors in air transport in the Paris region up to 1990, as analysed in 1978. The future is never totally predetermined-however influential past trends may be, the future remains open to several possible scenarios. The actors in the system under examination possess various degrees of freedom which they will be able to exercise, through strategic action, in order to arrive at the goals they have set themselves, and thus successfully to carry out their project. From this it follows that analysis of these actors’ moves, confronting their plans, examining the balance of power between them (in terms of constraints and means of action) is essential in order to throw light on the strategic issues and the key questions for the future (which are the outcomes and consequences of foreseeable battles). If we focus our attention on energy, for example, these key questions will be concerned mainly with the price of oil, the demand for energy and also the maintenance or collapse of solidarity among OPEC member coun- tries, and so on. To take another example, in a 1976 futures study of cosmetics consumption up to 1990, analysis of actors’ strategies showed that the existence of companies with specialized distribution was threatened by the moves of other actors (such as mass distributors, consumer movements and trendsetters). Mic he l Coder is a member o f future s’s a d viso ry board. He is Pro fe sso r o f Ind ustria l Pro sp e c tive a t the C o nse rva to ire Na tio na l de s Arts e t Me tie rs, 2 rue ContC, Pa ris 75003, Franc e . FUTURES July/ Aug ust 1991 0016-3287/ 91/ 060605-18 @ 1 9 9 1 Butte rwo rth- He ine m a nn Ltd