A self-correction technique for
real-time simulation of regulated
rivers
Olcay I. Unver
An automatic self-correction scheme is presented for online adjustment of stream-
flow forecasts during simulation of river systems with regulating structures, when
actual flow data for interior points are available in real time. Another scheme is
presented which allows for the modelling of channel losses due to physical effects
such as evapotranspiration, bank storage and diversions. A previously developed
river simulation/reservoir management model has been modified to include both
schemes. The model is particularly useful for real-time, short-term flood
forecasting and reservoir operation. The model application is made to the Lower
Colorado River in Texas.
The progress which has been made in electronics
technology during the past decade has provided
valuable tools for real-time river management such as
monitoring, flood forecasting and reservoir opera-
tion. Remote-sensing data collection equipment and
computers are now more affordable, and computing
power, speed and capabilities have been enhanced.
Online monitoring of hydrologic quantity and quality
data such as streamflow and rainfall is economically
more feasible than ever. River and reservoir manage-
ment for purposes such as flood control, water
supply, low flow augmentation, recreation, etc is
becoming more and more efficient with the utilization
of computer models that can process the large
amounts of data available in the real-time framework.
Problem statement
One of the problems in routing flows in river-
reservoir systems on a real-time basis is the
time—space tradeoff. For flood operations of a river
Olcay Unver is President, Prime Ministry of Turkey South-
eastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administra-
tion, Karli Sokak 59, GDP, 06700 Ankara, Turkey.
reservoir system, for example, the system manager
will want to start routing computations as soon as a
potential flood hydrograph is detected, and from the
point the hydrograph enters the river system. In
medium to large river systems, such as the Lower
Colorado River in Texas, the travel time of flood
waters may vary between several hours and several
days before the flood hydrograph reaches the reser-
voir system or flood control points (Figure 1).
Similarly, it may take several days for reservoir
releases to reach demand points in water supply
operations (Figure 2 ). A real-time simulation model
for flood operations of multi-reservoir systems was
previously developed (Unver et al, 1987) that com-
bines rainfall-runoff modelling, interactive data
input—output, full dynamic wave flood routing, and
on-screen colour graphics capabilities. The model
uses a modified version of the US National Weather
Service dynamic wave operational model, DWOPER
(Fread, 1982) for routing computations. In this study,
two important modifications to the aforementioned
model are presented to utilize fully all real-time
streamflow data available and to correct computed
flow variables on a real-time basis. The formulation,
as a by-product, allows for the inclusion of flows into
248 0790-0627/92/040248-09 © 1992 Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd
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