Please cite this article in press as: C. Tong, et al., An efficient deep model for day-ahead electricity load forecasting with stacked denoising auto-encoders, J. Parallel Distrib.
Comput. (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpdc.2017.06.007.
J. Parallel Distrib. Comput. ( ) –
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J. Parallel Distrib. Comput.
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jpdc
An efficient deep model for day-ahead electricity load forecasting
with stacked denoising auto-encoders
Chao Tong
a
, Jun Li
a
, Chao Lang
a
, Fanxin Kong
b
, Jianwei Niu
a
, Joel J.P.C. Rodrigues
c , d, e, f ,
*
a
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China
b
School of Computer Science, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, H3A2T5
c
National Institute of Telecommunications (Inatel), 37540-000 Santa Rita do Sapucaí - MG, Brazil
d
Instituto de Telecomunicações, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal
e
University of Fortaleza (UNIFOR), 60811-905 Fortaleza-CE, Brazil
f
ITMO University, 191002 St. Petersburg, Russia
highlights
• We propose a deep learning based model for forecasting day-ahead electricity load.
• It uses history load data, weather and season parameters.
• It uses multiple stacked denoising auto-encoders to extract features.
• The refined features and a season parameter are fed into a SVR model for training.
article info
Article history:
Received 2 March 2017
Received in revised form 5 May 2017
Accepted 9 June 2017
Available online xxxx
Keywords:
Deep learning
Multi-modal
Stacked denoising auto-encoders
Feature extraction
Support vector regression
abstract
In real word it is quite meaningful to forecast the day-ahead electricity load for an area, which is beneficial
to reduction of electricity waste and rational arrangement of electric generator units. The deployment
of various sensors strongly pushes this forecasting research into a ‘‘big data’’ era for a huge amount of
information has been accumulated. Meanwhile the prosperous development of deep learning (DL) theory
provides powerful tools to handle massive data and often outperforms conventional machine learning
methods in many traditional fields. Inspired by these, we propose a deep learning based model which
firstly refines features by stacked denoising auto-encoders (SDAs) from history electricity load data and
related temperature parameters, subsequently trains a support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast
the day-ahead total electricity load. The most significant contribution of this heterogeneous deep model
is that the abstract features extracted by SADs from original electricity load data are proven to describe
and forecast the load tendency more accurately with lower errors. We evaluate this proposed model by
comparing with plain SVR and artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and the experimental results
validate its performance improvements.
© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
1.1. Background and motivation
Smart Grids (SGs) [17,18,29] (as shown in Fig. 1) are new-type
electrical grids which provide a promising scheme for more utility
electricity delivery, aiming at reaching higher reliability and using
electrical resources more economically and rationally, based on
computer remote control and automation with advanced tech-
niques of communication and sensing. These systems are made
*
Corresponding author at: National Institute of Telecommunications (Inatel),
37540-000 Santa Rita do Sapucaí - MG, Brazil.
E-mail address: joeljr@ieee.org (J.J.P.C. Rodrigues).
possible by two-way communication technology which has been
used for decades in other industries. Recent years, both theory de-
velopment and practical applications of SGs have gradually made
major strides in the real life. Sensor technique [15,23] is one of the
applications which make grids ‘‘smart’’. Massive sensors with dif-
ferent functions are deployed and return abundant heterogeneous
data describing the actual situation of grids in detail, and then some
controls and adjustments can be done to fit the dynamic changes in
the real environment. Thus the occurrence of SGs strongly pushes
electrical grids research into a ‘‘big data’’ era due to a huge amount
of information collected by sensors.
One of the most common tasks in electrical grids is forecasting
the day-ahead electricity load for an area, e.g., a city or a state.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpdc.2017.06.007
0743-7315/© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.