Proceedings of the 11 th Space Syntax Symposium TOWARDS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF CONFIGURATIONAL MODELS: New evidence of variance and bootstrapping 170.1 JOÃO PINELO SILVA Department of Architecture & Interior Design, University of Bahrain, Kingdom of Bahrain jpinelo@uob.edu.bh #170 TOWARDS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF CONFIGURATIONAL MODELS: New evidence of variance and bootstrapping ABSTRACT Conigurational modelling involves simple but powerful methodologies that seamlessly integrate the design process and has high adherence by professionals. However, a traditionally intuitive approach, rather than a statistically informed one, occasionally compromises such models. As a consequence, the models often do not reach statistical signiicance and therefore are of limited eicacy. Were they to reach statistical signiicance, conigurational models would increase their validity but also the potential for data sharing and therefore their economic feasibility. In this paper, I discuss the aspects of the process of creating conigurational models that are crucial towards statistical validity. After introducing the methodological framework, I focus on the two stages for measuring traic: inding a representative sample for each spatial unit and measuring suicient units to form the model. I present new evidence of the expected variability of data that dismisses common but false assumptions that often lead to statistical insigniicance. I demonstrate how the introduction of variance breaks down a model. I argue that reaching statistical signiicance can be achieved with the use of basic statistics, which are within reach of designers. Finally, I introduce Bootstrapping, an advanced but straightforward method to provide statistical signiicance in cases of a small sampling. KEYWORDS Space syntax, conigurational models, spatial coniguration, covariance analysis, bootstrapping. 1. INTRODUCTION According to Karimi (2012), the conigurational approach, “… provides a reliable evaluation system that can lead the design process by bringing together creativity and research into a single framework.” (Karimi 2012, p. 299). Perhaps this is part of the reason for its wide acceptance by planners and architects. Often, such studies are used by professionals to ‘get a grasp’ on the role of the coniguration in social and economical phenomena. Observing social dynamics within a spatial framework is rooted in the architectural tradition through the works of some of the greatest thinkers, who advocate direct observation as a way to understand city life. Examples are the works of Jacobs (1961), Alexander (1977, Alexander 2002), Whyte(1980, Whyte, Whyte 1988), Hall (1980, Hall 1990), Lynch (1964), Gehl (1999, 2000, 2006, 2006, 2010). While these authors refer to observation as the means to an intuitive understanding of a place, others, such as Gehl, use more systematic and quantiied practices. Gehl and Svarre (2013) compiled a list of methodologies for the observation and measurement of behaviour and traic. Architects and planners often extend the approach to model pedestrian and vehicular traic, by linking conigurational properties to traic volume. However, this is sometimes done in an intuitive way, following tradition, rather than a statistically sound