Contents
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .946
17.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .946
17.2. Conceptual approaches to vulnerability assessments . . . . .949
17.2.1. A framework for analyzing vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .950
17.2.2. Focusing on interactive changes and stresses in the Arctic . .951
17.2.2.1.Trends in human and societal conditions . . . . . . . . . .952
17.2.2.2. Climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .952
17.2.2.3. UV radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .953
17.2.2.4. Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .953
17.2.2.5. Pollutant interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .954
17.2.3. Identifying coping and adaptation strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . .955
17.2.3.1. Governance, regulations, and subsistence . . . . . . . . .956
17.2.3.2. Settlements, population, and migration . . . . . . . . . . .956
17.2.3.3. Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .956
17.2.3.4. Economies, markets, and trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .957
17.2.3.5. Connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .957
17.3. Methods and models for vulnerability analysis . . . . . . . . . .957
17.3.1. Climate scenarios and downscaling to specific sites . . . . . . . .958
17.3.2. Measurement and methodology for pollutant analyses . . . . .959
17.3.3. Analysis of human and societal trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .959
17.3.4. Sources of local knowledge and stakeholders as participants . .959
17.4. Understanding and assessing vulnerabilities through case
studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .961
17.4.1. Candidate vulnerability case studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .962
17.4.1.1. Sachs Harbour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .963
17.4.1.2. Greenland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .964
17.4.2. A more advanced vulnerability case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .965
17.4.2.1. Reindeer nomadism in Finnmark, Norway . . . . . . . . .965
17.4.2.2. Modifying the general vulnerability framework . . . . .970
17.4.2.3. Climate change and climate variability in Finnmark:
projections and potential effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .971
17.4.2.4. Ecological impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .973
17.4.2.5. Coping with climate variability and change . . . . . . . .974
17.4.2.6. Constraints on coping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .976
17.4.2.7. Insights from the reindeer nomadism vulnerability
case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .980
17.5. Insights gained and implications for future vulnerability
assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .980
17.5.1. Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .982
17.5.2. Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .982
17.5.3.Trends in human and societal conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .983
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .983
Chapter 17
Climate Change in the Context of Multiple Stressors and
Resilience
Lead Author
James J. McCarthy, Marybeth Long Martello
Contributing Authors
Robert Corell, Noelle Eckley Selin, Shari Fox, Grete Hovelsrud-Broda, Svein Disch Mathiesen, Colin Polsky, Henrik Selin,
Nicholas J.C.Tyler
Corresponding Author
Kirsti Strøm Bull, Inger Maria Gaup Eira, Nils Isak Eira, Siri Eriksen, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Johan Klemet Kalstad, Christian Nellemann, Nils Oskal,
Erik S. Reinert, Douglas Siegel-Causey, Paal Vegar Storeheier, Johan Mathis Turi