2017 Summer 1 TRUMP AND THE MIDDLE EAST: ‘BARKING DOGS SELDOM BITE’ ARTICLE ABSTRACT In drating its Middle East policy, the Trump administration ap- pears to depart from the sot power rhetoric of the Obama years, seemingly favoring a more hawkish, hard power approach to dealing with America’s most important interests in the region: the defeat of ISIS and the contain- ment of Iran. While many regional partners hope for a radical U.S. foreign policy shit ater years of perceived American disengagement, Trump seems to be constrained by path dependency. He inherits a region in turmoil, a public adverse to regional military engagements for peripheral interests, and a major strategic discrepancy between ambition and capability. Con- sequently, the new White House will be forced to continue Obama’s policy of delegation and multilateralism. Introduction W hen the 45 th President of the United States was sworn in ater a lengthy, heated, and highly emotional campaign, few commenta- tors and analysts in the West believed that Donald Trump had the personality, expertise, or experience to lead the most powerful country in the world. In the Middle East, however, policy makers and commentators were ironically less critical of the business tycoon from New York who had repeat- edly lashed out verbally at Arabs and Muslims alike. Despite this rhetorical abuse, Middle Easterners from Egypt over the Levant to the Gulf hoped that a more hawkish and militaristic U.S. President would bring an end to Obama’s policy of multilateral retrenchment, sot power diplomacy, and indecisive overseas commitments. Ater a hundred days in oice, however, it remains to be seen to what extent Trump can actually meet these expectations. Without a clearly formulated for- eign policy strategy, and hampered by an overreliance on the Pentagon and a disintegrating State Department, the Trump administration has so far been Trump and the Middle East: ‘Barking Dogs Seldom Bite’ ANDREAS KRIEG * * King’s College London, UK Insight Turkey Vol. 19 / No. 3 / 2017 DOI: 10.25253/99.2017193.07