2 nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo 548 Seasonality of Turkish Arrivals to Municipality Licensed Thermal Hotels: A Case of Afyonkarahisar, Turkey Hasan Hüseyin SOYBALI Afyon Kocatepe University School of Tourism and Hotel Management, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey hsoybali@aku.edu.tr Ahmet BAYTOK Afyon Kocatepe University School of Tourism and Hotel Management, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey ahmetbaytok@aku.edu.tr Veysel AĞCA Afyon Kocatepe University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey agca@aku.edu.tr Abstract: Seasonality is a common problem and affects all stakeholders of in tourism industry. As a promising tourism type with its great potential, despite common beliefs, thermal tourism demand also indicates seasonal trend with peaks in high seasons and troughs in low seasons. This study identifies seasonal patterns of domestic guest arrivals to and nights spent in Municipality registered thermal hotels in Afyonkarahisar, Turkey between 2000 and 2008 by using ARIMA method. Findings indicate that there is a strong seasonality in Turkish guest arrivals to Municipality licensed thermal hotels which is closely related with official holiday calendar and school holidays in Turkey. These thermal hotels should realise the effects seasonality and take immediate action to improve seasonal patterns for more evenly distributed seasonal domestic tourism demand and better future for all. Keywords: Seasonality, Thermal Tourism, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey Introduction Many industries have faced seasonality problem throughout the world. Tourism industry, in particular, is badly affected by seasonal tourism supply and demand and as Butler, 2001, states it is one of the main defining characteristics of global tourism. As Baum and Lundtorp, 2001, emphasize seasonality impacts on all aspects of supply-side behaviour in tourism, including marketing, the labour market, business finance, stakeholder management and all aspects of operations. While seasonality leaves many resources unutilized and employees unemployed during the low season, heavy demand during the peak season, on the other hand, also cause some serious problems such as crowdedness, congestion, poor air quality, lower service quality. Therefore, it is a serious problem to tackle and a well documented subject in tourism literature. BarOn, 1975, Sutcliffe and Sinclair, 1980, Yacoumis, 1980, Wanhill, 1980, ETAG, 1984, O‘Driscoll, 1985, Hartmann, 1986, Soesilo & εings, 1987, Allcock, 1989, Ball, 1988, Snepenger & Houser, 1990, Furr et. al., 1992, Butler, 1994, Baum & Hagen, 1999, Baum & Lundtorp, 2001, Koc & Altinay, 2007, Palang et. al., 2007 and many other authors evaluated the seasonality and related issues from different perspectives through the years. BarOn (1975) whose study has been a starting point for many other studies on seasonality stated that there are two types of seasonality; ―natural seasonality‖ and ―institutionalised seasonality‖. While he accepted climate and weather conditions as primary causes of natural seasonality, he stressed that, holidays and other events at specific times of each year like religious vacations, school vacations and festivals are also to be blamed for institutionalised seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand levels. One of the oldest ways to benefit from geothermal resources is using them in spas (jeotermaldernegi.org.tr, 2010) for bathing and treatment purposes. The use of geothermal waters for tourism purposes is expressed as thermal tourism in today‘s world. Thermal tourism can be defined as using mineralized thermal waters for health, recreation and relaxation aims and it displays different characteristics from other types of tourism. Thermal tourism provides an