Large Deviation Tail Estimates and Related Limit Laws for Stochastic Fixed Point Equations Jeffrey F. Collamore and Anand N. Vidyashankar Abstract We study the forward and backward recursions generated by a stochastic fixed point equation (SFPE) of the form V d D A maxfV;DgCB , where .A; B; D/ 2 .0; 1/ R 2 , for both the stationary and explosive cases. In the stationary case (when EŒlog A < 0/, we present results concerning the precise tail asymptotics for the random variable V satisfying this SFPE. In the explosive case (when EŒlog A > 0/, we establish a central limit theorem for the forward recursion generated by the SFPE, namely the process V n D A n maxfV n1 ;D n gC B n , where f.A n ;B n ;D n / W n 2 Z C g is an i.i.d. sequence of random variables. Next, we consider recursions where the driving sequence of vectors, f.A n ;B n ;D n / W n 2 Z C g, is modulated by a Markov chain in general state space. We demonstrate an asymmetry between the forward and backward recursions and develop techniques for estimating the exceedance probability. In the process, we establish an interesting connection between the regularity properties of fV n g and the recurrence properties of an associated -shifted Markov chain. We illustrate these ideas with several examples. J.F. Collamore () Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark e-mail: collamore@math.ku.dk Research supported in part by Danish Research Council (SNF) Grant No. 09-092331. A.N. Vidyashankar Department of Statistics, Volgeneau School of Engineering, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA e-mail: avidyash@gmu.edu Research supported in part by NSF grant DMS 1107108. G. Alsmeyer and M. L¨ owe (eds.), Random Matrices and Iterated Random Functions, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics 53, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-38806-4 5, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 91