Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada CHRISTOPHER J. LEMIEUX Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1 (e-mail: cjlemieu@fes.uwaterloo.ca) DANIEL J. SCOTT Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1 (e-mail: dj2scott@fes.uwaterloo.ca) For more than a decade, climate change has been identified as an important emerging issue for pro- tected areas. Utilising outputs from two equilibrium global vegetation models (GVMs) forced with six climate-change scenarios, this study assessed potential terrestrial biome-type change in Canada’s protected area network (2,979 national parks, national wildlife areas, migratory bird sanctuaries, Ramsar sites, ecological reserves, wilderness wildlife areas and provincial parks). Vegetation-modelling results project that 37–48 percent of Canada’s pro- tected areas could experience a change in terrestrial biome type under doubled atmospheric carbon- dioxide conditions. Park and protected area planning in Canada have traditionally been founded upon enduring-feature analysis and ecoregion represen- tation frameworks. These conservation-planning frameworks are based on climatic and biogeo- graphic stability; assumptions that what these mod- elling results for Canada’s protected areas and other vegetation-modelling studies indicate are untenable in an era of global climate change. Implications for protected area policy and planning in Canada are also discussed. Un aperc ¸u national rele`ve l’ impact du changement climatique et ses conse´quences sur les zones prote´- ge´escanadiennes (les parcs nationaux, les refuges d’ oiseaux migrateurs, les re´serves nationales de faune, les parc provinciaux et territoriaux, les sites RAMSAR, les re´serves provinciaux et territoriaux de faune, les zones d’ inte´reˆt naturel et scientifique, et les zones de conservation). L’ application des mode`les examinant lestransformations e´cologiques, plusspe´cifiquement leschangementbotaniquesone´te´utilise´epourbaˆtir des sce´narios climatiques. Il s’ agissait de de´couvrir quellee´volution l’e´ventuelchangementclimatique imposeraitauxzonesprote´ge´esa`travers leCanada. Ilae´te´estime´equelasuperficiedeceszones prote´- ge´es pourrait diminuer de 37% a 48% si le taux de CO 2 doublait. Selon les calculs ceci changerait entre 832 a` 1,426 zones prote´ges Canadiennes. Tandis que l’ expe´riencede´montre qu’unsyste`mede conservation bien conc ¸u et ge´re´peut servir a la protection des zonesprote´ge´es,lesmode`lesdesgestion e´cologique traditionnelles utiliser au Canada sont seulement un des moyens de regrouper ou d’ inte´grer le nombre de parties de cet ensemble, car ils n’ ont qu’ une capacite´ limite´ea`de´criredequellemanie`releszonesprote´- ge´es font face au changement climatique ou a`d’ autres stress. En terminant, l’ article accorde une attention particulie`re aux implications pratiques de cesre´sultats. The Canadian Geographer / Le Ge ´ographe canadien 49, no 4 (2005) 384–399 ª / Canadian Association of Geographers / L’Association canadienne des ge ´ographes