87 Assessing (the Lack of) Chinese Investment in Latvia MĀRIS ANDŽĀNS AND UNA ALEKSANDRA BĒRZIŅA-ČERENKOVA, LATVIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Summary The level of Chinese investment in Latvia is low in both absolute and relative terms, and most activity has taken place in the real estate sector. Political dialogue between the two countries has intensified, particularly in 2016 and early 2017, and Latvia’s hosting of the 16+1 forum raised the country’s visibility in China, and vice-versa, but it remains to be seen to what extent this visibility can be materialized in the form of Chinese investment in the country. Mapping Chinese investment in Latvia According to the official Latvian statistics, the balance of direct investment from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latvia was lower than EUR 0.1 million until 2009, with no investments made between 2005 and 2008. The amount of Chinese investment passed the threshold of EUR 3 million in 2013 and surged to EUR 59.90 million in 2014, coinciding with the sudden upsurge of “golden visa” applications of Chinese based on real estate purchases. These figures were also corroborated by the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Latvia. 1 The data provided by the Rhodium Group demonstrates a different statistic, with sudden investment peaks of EUR 1 million in 2005, 2011 and 2015 with no investments during other periods. 2 This discrepancy arises due to differences in methodology. As stated by the Rhodium Group, only commercial projects are considered as foreign direct investment (FDI) and not purchases by Chinese citizens (i.e. real estate). ___________ 1. Interview with Liu Shaojun, Economic and Commercial Councilor at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Latvia, 10 May 2017. 2. Rhodium Group, Chinese direct investment transactions in Latvia, 2017.