The University of Manchester Discussion Paper Series Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes By Chris R. Birchenhall, Denise R. Osborn and Marianne Sensier Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK November 2000 Number 002 Download paper from: http://www.ses.man.ac.uk/cgbcr/discussi.htm