Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Research & Social Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/erss Perspectives Snakes in The Greenhouse: Does increased natural gas use reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal consumption? Patrick Trent Greiner a, ⁎ , Richard York a , Julius Alexander McGee b a University of Oregon, United States b Portland State University, United States ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Natural gas CO 2 emissions Displacement Energy ABSTRACT Since natural gas emits less carbon than does coal per unit of electricity generation, some analysts suggest natural gas will help to mitigate climate change. However, sociological research has found that the substitution of one natural resource for another often does not happen as anticipated because of political and economic factors. Here, we analyze cross-national time-series data to examine the connection between growth in emissions from natural gas consumption and changes in emissions from coal use, controlling for several structural factors. We find that CO 2 emissions from natural gas sources do not displace CO 2 emissions from coal. These results cast doubt on whether the growing use of natural gas is likely to help substantially reduce CO 2 emissions. 1. Introduction Natural gas produces lower carbon emissions than coal per unit of electricity generation [1]. Citing this fact, some policy-makers, energy analysts, and environmental scientists argue that increasing production of natural gas will suppress coal use and thereby help to curtail global climate change [2–4]. The development of hydraulic fracturing tech- nologies has made shale gas resources more accessible and affordable, which has led natural gas to become a growing share of global elec- tricity production [2,5]. However, a body of sociological research suggests that the substitution of one natural resource for another does not happen smoothly or reliably due to political and economic factors [6–8]. Despite this, little research has been done that examines the extent to which the increased use of natural gas suppresses CO 2 emis- sions from more carbon intensive sources, such as coal [9,10]. Here, we use cross-national time-series data to assess whether increases in emissions from natural gas consumption are associated with a decline in emissions from coal use, controlling for a variety of structural factors. We demonstrate that additional CO 2 emissions per capita from natural gas sources do not suppress CO 2 emissions from solid fossil fuel sources (e.g. coal). These results point to the importance of understanding po- litical and economic factors that condition the effectiveness of new technologies in mitigating CO 2 emissions, and add to other research showing that the expansion of natural gas infrastructure is unlikely to reduce environmental impacts [9–11]. Ultimately, these results cast doubt on whether natural gas is an effective “bridge fuel” in global efforts to substantially reduce CO 2 emissions. Social science research examining the effectiveness with which newly introduced technologies or resources, such as fuels, displace es- tablished ones has found that displacement does not typically occur as expected or intended, if, indeed, it occurs at all. This phenomenon – which has variously been termed the paperless office paradox [12,13] and the displacement paradox [6,14,15]– has been noted in the failure of the increasing presence of non-fossil energy sources to substantially suppress fossil fuel consumption [6]. Other research also has found evidence of a displacement paradox in sectors of industry such as agriculture [14], automobiles [15], communication and information technologies [12,13], and renewable energy [7,8]. In light of the findings from this body of research, the importance of examining the dynamics of displacement with regard to natural gas and coal use is clear. Though the mechanisms through which such unexpected outcomes are manifested vary according to the particularities in each instance, in many cases such outcomes can be seen as a function of newly in- troduced technologies and resources being used in order to expand production and consumption [7]. The displacement paradox suggests that the forces driving the expansion of production are also effective at generating consumption to such an extent that new technologies and resources are used to satisfy new, rather than previously existing, in- dustrial and consumer demands. Theoretical explanations of the dis- placement paradox focus on the power of corporations in market economies to drive growth so as to increase profits [7,8,18]. For in- stance, companies typically will work to 1) ensure that their products have markets, and to 2) expand consumption of all such products https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.02.001 Received 27 November 2017; Received in revised form 31 January 2018; Accepted 1 February 2018 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Sociology, 1291, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1291, United States. E-mail address: pgreiner@uoregon.edu (P.T. Greiner). Energy Research & Social Science 38 (2018) 53–57 2214-6296/ © 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd. T