Trends in Biosciences 10(42), Print : ISSN 0974-8431, 8803-8807, 2017 Direct and Indirect Effects of Production Related Characters on Sugarcane Production (Saccharum spp.) K. SUJATHA 1 *, A. K. BAJPAI 2 , R. B. SINGH 1 AND ANTRA NAMDEV 1 1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, JNKVV, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh 2 Department of Soil and Water Engineering, JNKVV, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh *email: sujathakuppan@gmail.com ABSTRACT The purpose of present study was to describe the growth rate study for some time series production factors of Sugarcane and also making a diagnostic study for detecting some influential time series production factors governing total sugarcane production in India and also in Tamil Nadu during the periods 1991 to 2015. The secondary data was collected for analysis from A Monthly Magazine Indian Sugar, ISMA Publications. The analysis revealed that the maximum compound growth rate had been obtained at the minimum statutory price i.e. 8.50 per cent in India as well as in Tamil Nadu and the minimum growth rate was observed in yield i.e. 0.03 per cent in India and - 0.41 per cent in Tamil Nadu. On observing the Coefficient of variation, the minimum statutory price showed the maximum fluctuation in both the cases (66.33 per cent) and the most stable factor was the average recovery of sugar percent in India (2.34 per cent) and in TN (4.56 per cent). Correlation and Path analysis delineated that area and sugar production had a high positive effect of 0.9453 and 1.3608 in Tamil Nadu and India respectively. Key words Sugarcane, Correlation Coefficients, Path Coefficients, Compound growth rate, Coefficient of variation. Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) is one of the important cash crops in the country occupying about 5 million hectares area. Sugarcane is emerging as a multi-product crop used as a basic raw material for the production of sugar, ethanol, electricity, paper etc. To meet the demand for sugar and its byproducts in respect of their multifarious use by the continuously growing population, sugarcane production, both quantitatively and qualitatively, should be maintained at the desired level. To boost the sugar production in the country as a whole, the production figures in each state, as well as each of the factors of production, are also to be accounted. Among the sweeteners, sugar is preferred mostly in India. India is the largest producer of sugar in the world. Excessive production of sugar is a boon to a country as it does not only meet the demands of the growing population in the country and help maintenance of an adequate reserve of it but also does add to the national exchequer by way of exports. Though ironically, the sugar industry confronts problem during years of surplus production, yet the problem can be tackled by adopting effective means ultimately ensuring stability in the sugar economy. In the process of manufacturing sugar, it is known that the presence of many inter-related factors stands in its way. This fact justifies the inherent need for appropriately diagnosing the important factors, which affect the total sugarcane production. By 2050, the population in the country is expected to reach 1.65 billion. At the present rate of growth in consumption, the requirement of sugar will go up from 23 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes (www.sugarcane.res.in). In view of the dominance of this crop, this study performs a comparative view on such factors for evolving future strategic planning with regard to the production of sugarcane. MATERIALS AND METHODS The data were collected from A Monthly Magazine Indian Sugar, vol. no. LXVII, 2016, ISMA Publications for analysis. In accordance with the objectives delineated, the time-series data pertaining to eight important factors viz., X 1 = Area (‘000 ha.), X 2 = Production (‘000 t), X 3 = Productivity (t/ ha), X 4 = Cane crushed (‘000 t), X 5 = Sugar Production (‘000 t), X 6 = Average Recovery of Sugar percent (per cent), X 7 = No. of Factories in Operation (numbers), X 8 = Minimum Statutory Price (Rs/Q) were collected for over a long span of 25 years (1991 to 2015) both for Tamil Nadu and India as a whole. Growth rate study on time series production factors on sugarcane In order to study the growth rate, the well-known growth model was fitted with respect to each factor. The model is X it = á â t å it ; i = 1, 2,…, 8; t = 1, 2, …, 25 where, Xit = the response of the i th factor in the t th year, α,β = unknown parameters to be estimated in the model, t = time element which takes the value 3,………….n εit = multiplicative error [εit’s ~ IID (0, σ 2 )] The above growth model was linearised by using logarithmic transformation and the unknown parameters were estimated by the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. From the fitted model compound growth rate percentage was computed as CGR= (Antilog b - 1) X 100 where, b = Estimated value of â (Sitarambabu et al., 2014). Further, to examine the stability in yield of sugarcane across different states, the coefficient of variation (CV) was estimated. CV = ã 100 where, ó X = Standard deviation of x, and = Mean of x. Statistical diagnostic study for detecting the