Global issues and futures: A theory and pedagogy for heuristic modeling Sam Cole * Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University at Buffalo, Hayes Hall, Mains Street, Buffalo, NY 14214, United States ARTICLE INFO Article history: Available online 29 July 2008 ABSTRACT Most futures methodologies might be termed ‘‘heuristic’’, that is a way to promote learning, discovery, and problem solving through trial and error. This paper describes one such approach, used primarily in teaching a Masters planning program class Global Issues and Futures in a class designed to raise awareness of a variety of global concerns. After explaining the underlying framework and concepts, and their foundation in previous futures studies, the core equations, data, and a classroom application are described. The method serves primarily to raise questions rather than answer them; to broaden the perspective that students will bring to their later careers. 1 ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Background to the method Heuristic approaches to futures studies seek insights into the variety of possible outcomes based on consideration of a broad range of variables. Possibly this is no more–no less than most contemporary futurists would claim for their tools. Delphi, scenario-building, simulation modeling, cross-impact analysis, and so on, in their various manifestations all seek to integrate knowledge and none would claim to make firm predictions [1,2]. The particular approach described in this paper attempts to bring together these various methods, and like most futures methods has adapted, or evolved from previous methods, rather than being ‘‘invented’’. The core of the method is a relatively simple simulation model based on a matrix of interactions between so-called ‘‘hard’’ and ‘‘soft’’ variables. The former are the economy–demography–environment variables and relationships included in the early COR (Club of Rome) global models and in the new integrated assessment models being fostered by various UN agencies [3–7]. The latter are the less tangible culture–knowledge–society variables and relationships discussed in student readers on global issues and policies [8–10]. The variables are combined in the GIFS (Global Issues and Futures) with the new variables treated as equal partners The goal here is to provide a teaching tool that would provoke students to think empirically about a variety of ‘‘global’’ topics, their relationships, and implications for the future. Despite the author’s insatiable addiction to ‘‘numbers’’, the goal is to enhance students’ abilities to develop both rational and non-rational capacities, as expressed by Masini [11] in her article ‘‘Rethinking Futures Studies,’’ or Dator [12] in Futures Studies in Higher Education, and to challenge planning students to ‘‘Dare to Dream’’ [13]. The approach is foremost an experiment in pedagogy. Over the years, I have explored a variety of models addressing a variety of problems, and remain convinced that, on the one hand, useful results can be obtained from quantitative models but, on the other, there are diminishing returns to modeling. Thus, the best way to precede in futures studies is through a practical mix of methods using commonly used software ensuring a rapid learning curve and least expense. This precluded, use of the far more refined and packaged IFS (International Futures) model developed for a more focused international development course by Hughes [7]. Our alternative ‘‘heuristic’’ model was an exploration to whether the simplest possible Futures 40 (2008) 777–787 * Tel.: +1 716 837 2133. E-mail address: samcole@buffalo.edu. 1 This paper is based on the author’s contribution to Dator [7]. The seminar described was taught from 1996 to 2007. The author is grateful for comments from Ted Gordon, the late Professor Himmi Jammal, and many students. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.034