Irregular conflict–terrorism, insurgency, and criminal warfare (“criminal insurgency” and transnational organized crime)–is a complex challenge to many states. Ranging from street gangs–“local insurgencies” to drug/crime wars or “criminal insurgencies” through transnational criminal or extremist networks challenging regions–these threats require intelligence and analysis to understand and forecast potentials and craft interagency, intergovernmental solutions. Adaptive, analytical red teaming is a process of refining tradecraft for indications and warning (for a range of scenarios along the spectrum of current intelligence, early warning through strategic foresight). Specifically, analytical red teaming places a team of analysts against an active red team simulating a criminal opposing force, or forces. This short paper will describe the process and briefly recap the experience of two adaptive, analytical red team exercises (Operation Talavera and Operation Chimera) conducted by the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning (TEW) Group. Lessons learned and suggestions for refining the process, as well as conducting future red team exercises for irregular threats, will be discussed. RED TEAMING Public safety and security agencies are faced with a wide array of evolving and converging threats. Understanding, anticipating, and identifying specific threats or attacks requires well- developed skills, experience, and analytical prowess. Red teaming, or the use of “red cells” that simulate an adversary’s mindset, operational preferences, capabilities, and tactical style (modus operandi), can be integrated within the analytical framework to enhance skills for identifying threats (i.e., indications and warning), and conducting assessments (i.e., operational net assessment). Red teaming involves a range of approaches to create insight into threats and adversaries. These approaches originally focused on detecting physical vulnerabilities and have been expanded to methods that facilitate understanding of an adversary’s capabilities ANALYTICAL RED TEAM EXERCISES FOR IRREGULAR CONFLICT By John P. Sullivan In Red Teaming Concepts, The Red Team Toolkit September 13, 2013 13 Min read / / / !