American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2015, Vol. 3, No. 1, 34-48 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajams/3/1/7 © Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/ajams-3-1-7 Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security P.K. Sahu, P. Mishra * , B. S. Dhekale, Vishwajith K.P., K. Padmanaban Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia, West Bengal, India *Corresponding author: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com Received October 24, 2014; Revised February 22, 2015; Accepted February 27, 2015 Abstract In this paper, under the background of overall food security situation in the SAARC countries, attempts have been made to analyse the production behaviour along with the total seeds of two major food crops rice and wheat. This will help to draw up strategies and programmes for regional cooperation in ensuring food security and reducing hunger and malnutrition in the region. Forecasting of area, production, yield and total seed production will not only help to solve the food security problem but also seed security in these SAARC countries in future. In addition to descriptive statistics, the Box – Jenkins ARIMA modelling technique has been used to analyse the information from 1961 through 2010. The forecast shows that rice and wheat production for the year 2020 would be about 794 and 777 million tons respectively in the world. In-spite of increase in production the study reveals that the yield of rice and wheat in world would be 4.35 t/ha and 3.4 t/ ha in 2020 but the yield of these two crops in SAARC countries, barring one country in each, will remain far below the world projection. Thus, under the given remote possibility of horizontal expansion, the study emphasises the need for quantum jump in the per hectare yield of these two crops for this region. The study also advocates that good quality of seeds in good amount be made available to the farmers, otherwise the whole food security of this part of the Globe would be under tremendous risk. Keywords: ARIMA, forecasting, production, yield, seed, SAARC countries Cite This Article: P.K. Sahu, P. Mishra, B. S. Dhekale, Vishwajith K.P., and K. Padmanaban, “Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security.” American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 3, no. 1 (2015): 34-48. doi: 10.12691/ajams-3-1-7. 1. Introduction World population particularly the population of developing world is increasing at an alarming rate. To feed this ever increasing human population always remains a challenging task to the planners of the individual countries and also the world bodies. The planners should know the likely population behaviour of the countries under changing scenario. At the same time they should have an idea about the likely demand for food and other commodities. Thus, forecasting production behaviours of the major crops play vital role towards the planners for food and nutritional security. The planners should have idea about the likely production scenario of the major crops. Food crops like wheat, rice play important roles in solving food and nutritional security problem. About two third of wheat production in the world is used for human food and one sixth is used as livestock feed. It is grown on 216.70 million hectares with production of 651.40 million tonnes in the world during year 2010. India ranks second largest producer of wheat, next to China, accounting 11.63 percent of total wheat production in the world. Wheat is a staple food for about one third of population and major supplement in the human diet containing protein, niacin and thiamine. Rice is another major staple food and a mainstay for the rural population and their food security. Rice is vital for the nutrition of most of the population in Asia, as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Africa; it is central to the food security of over half the world population, ( C. Calpe,( FAO, Rome, Italy) 2002). Rice is the predominant staple food in at least 33 developing countries, providing 27 percent of dietary energy supply, 20 percent of dietary protein and 3 percent of dietary fat. Rice can contribute nutritionally significant amounts of thiamine, riboflavin, niacin and zinc to the diet, and also smaller amounts of other micronutrients. Many factors influence the nutrient content of rice (Kennedy et al., FAO, Rome, Italy, 2002). Rice is the staple food for nearly 70% of the Indian population. During the year 2010-11 rice with 94.01 million tonnes of production contributed to 40.5% of the total food grain production of the country. Wheat is the second staple food of Bangladesh ( Rabbani et al 2009.) Rice and wheat are the principal sources of food, calorie, and protein intake for most of the people of Bangladesh (Karim et al. 2010). Wheat has now become an indispensable food item of the people of Bangladesh and it continues to fill the food gap caused by possible