INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MINING, RECLAMATION AND ENVIRONMENT, 2018
https://doi.org/10.1080/17480930.2018.1435969
Stochastic orebody modelling and stochastic long-term
production scheduling at the KéMag iron ore deposit,
Quebec, Canada
Maria Natalia Vallejo and Roussos Dimitrakopoulos
COSMO – Stochastic Mine Planning Laboratory, Department of Mining and Materials Engineering, McGill University,
Montreal, Canada
ABSTRACT
Stochastic optimisation provides a framework that is capable of generating
a strategic life-of-mine production schedule that increases net present
value while simultaneously reducing the risk associated with geological
uncertainty. This paper focuses on the application of the stochastic strategic
mine planning for technical risk management in the KéMag iron ore deposit
in Quebec, Canada, demonstrating the key steps of the framework. The
approach irst quantiies both the volumetric and multi-element grade
uncertainty of the deposit by generating a set of equally probable scenarios of
the orebody. In this case study, the boundaries of the lithologies (volumetric
uncertainty) deining the KéMag iron ore deposit are generated using a
pattern-based wavelet simulation algorithm. The pertinent grade properties,
namely, head iron, Davis Tube weight recovery, Davis Tube concentrate iron
and silica content (multi-element grade uncertainty) are jointly simulated
using the direct block minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors algorithm.
Subsequently, the simulated scenarios of the iron deposit serve as an input
to a life-of-mine stochastic integer programming production-scheduling
model. The latter stochastic optimisation model is employed to manage
and minimize the risk associated with the geological uncertainty of the
deposit in terms of meeting production targets while generating a mining
sequence of extraction maximising the net present value. The results of the
case study quantify the risk associated with the product’s silica content, total
iron production and expected discounted annual cash lows.
1. Introduction
In general, an optimal open-pit mine production schedule is deined as the sequence of extraction
that maximises the net present value of a mining project, subject to various technical and operational
constraints. Deining a long-term production schedule is one of the most important tasks in the mine
planning process because it deines the ore supply over the life-of-mine and, consequently, has a sub-
stantial impact on the project’s net present value (NPV). Mine production scheduling optimisation is
a complex process due to its size and the uncertainty of key input models, particularly the supply and
quality of ore materials and the demand for the inal products sold.
© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
KEYWORDS
Stochastic mine planning;
technical risk management;
stochastic simulation; open-
pit mine scheduling; iron ore
deposit; strategic planning
ARTICLE HISTORY
Received 26 June 2017
Accepted 30 January 2018
CONTACT Roussos Dimitrakopoulos roussos.dimitrakopoulos@mcgill.ca