American Journal of Climate Change, 2018, 7, 115-134
http://www.scirp.org/journal/ajcc
ISSN Online: 2167-9509
ISSN Print: 2167-9495
A Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall
to Predict Climate Change for Northwestern
Region of Bangladesh
Md. Didarul Islam Bhuyan
1*
, Md. Mohymenul Islam
1
, Md. Ebrahim Khalil Bhuiyan
2
1
Department of Physics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Santosh, Tangail, Bangladesh
2
Department of Textile Engineering, Bangladesh University of Business and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Abstract
Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the
world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of
attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial quantity of
global climate change studies over the country use climate models to estimate
future projections and uncertainties. Maximum temperature, precipitation
and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of the 5th
Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) within the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the available historical data collected by the
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during the period 1981-2008 in
the north-western region of Bangladesh and also the comparison between
these two values. It has been found that average maximum temperature shows
a positive trend of increase at a rate of 0.29˚C and 5.3˚C per century respec-
tively, for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. But the rainfall
is decreasing at a rate of 8.8 mm and 40.1 mm per century respectively for
BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. It is seen that July was the
maximum monsoon rainfall month and January was the lowest rainfall
month. The peak frequency is slightly smaller than 12 months, which indi-
cates that the major events are occurring before ending a year compared to
the previous year. According to MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data, future
normal temperature on north-western region will be increased at a rate of
1.62˚C during the period 2040-2100.
Keywords
Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall Test, Sen’s Slope Estimator, Z-Test, CMIP5
Model and Periodicity
How to cite this paper: Bhuyan, M.D.I.,
Islam, M.M. and Bhuiyan, M.E.K. (2018) A
Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rain-
fall to Predict Climate Change for North-
western Region of Bangladesh. American
Journal of Climate Change, 7, 115-134.
https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2018.72009
Received: January 1, 2018
Accepted: April 15, 2018
Published: April 18, 2018
Copyright © 2018 by authors and
Scientific Research Publishing Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY 4.0).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Open Access
DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2018.72009 Apr. 18, 2018 115 American Journal of Climate Change