American Journal of Engineering Research (AJER) 2018 American Journal of Engineering Research (AJER) e-ISSN: 2320-0847 p-ISSN : 2320-0936 Volume-7, Issue-1, pp-122-135 www.ajer.org Research Paper Open Access www.ajer.org Page 122 Forecasting of Electrical Energy Demand in Nigeria using Modified Form of Exponential Model Dikio C. Idoniboyeobu 1 , Aderemi J. Ogunsakin 2 , Biobele A. Wokoma 3 1,2 &3 (Department of Electrical Engineering, Rivers State University, Nigeria) Corresponding Author: Dikio C. Idoniboyeobu ABSTRACT: This paper presents long term electric power load forecasting for twenty years (20 years) projection, in Nigeria power system using modified form of exponential regression model. The model is implemented in Matlab platform with a plot in residential load demand, commercial load demand and industrial load demand in (MW). To analysis and predict the energy (power) demand (MW) requirement for a projection period of (2013 - 2032), data are collected between 2000 - 2012, from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The results obtained shows that energy generated from the respective generating station including Egbin Thermal Power Station, Sapele Thermal Power Station etc. are grossly inadequate and this mismatch is a major problem in power system planning and operation. The result also shows that there is deviation between predicted energy demand (MW) and available power (or capacity allocated). The predicted energy demand into the projected future of 20years is 395,870.2MW. The work also extended the prediction form into: least-square, exponential regression to modified form of exponential regression. Evidently, the comparism plot for least-square, exponential and modified exponential model shows similar predicting pattern: particularly least-square exhibit linear behaviour, while exponential and modified exponential shows non-linear behaviour but the new modified exponential model developed gives more accurate result with percentage error of 1.37% compared to existing model with 1.67%. Keywords – Energy Demand; Load Forecasting; Regression Analysis; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date of Submission: 04-12-2017 Date of acceptance: 12-01-2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I. INTRODUCTION The power generating stations of Nigeria power system are strategically located across the geopolitical- zone in Nigeria with different generating capacity. Increase rural to urban migration has led to an excessive demand of electricity due to the fast growing rate of industries, economic development and increasing population of the residence which has resulted to epileptic power supply, power failure, fluctuation and total power outage, therefore causing loss of energy utilization by the consumers and utility companies [1]. Peak load forecasting is essential in electrical power system operation, unit commitment and energy scheduling [2]. Energy demand forecasting initiates proper planning and developing of future generation, transmission and distribution facilities. One of the tasks of electric utility is to accurately predict energy demand requirements at all times, basically for a long term planning. Based on the outcomes of such forecasts utilities coordinates their resources to meet the forecasted energy demand, thereby engaging a least-cost energy management plan and follow-up which are subject to numerous uncertainty, that is, in planning for future capacity resources, we need an information and operation of the existing generation resources, in order to predicts future capacities [3]. Power system serves one main function that is, to supply energy to the respective customers, which are residential, commercial and industrial consumers with electrical energy at economical, safe and reliable condition. Another responsibility of power utilities is to recognize the needs of their customers (Demand) and the supply the necessary energies [4]. Evidently, limitations of energy resources in additions to environmental factors, requires electric energy to be used, more efficient power plant and transmission lines to be constructed. Sustainable supply of electric power is essential and energy generation, transmission and distribution foster all forms of economic development in the country. The Nigerian power system is not generating enough electric power; this inadequacy has resulted into frequent load shedding; reduction in quality of power; extra ordinary line losses and eventually failure and collapse of power system [5]. Therefore there is need to overcome this challenges of poor supply of power to the end users at all times.