Panel on Novel Risks, Future Threats: The Emerging Global Security Landscape 49 th Annual ISA Convention, San Francisco, CA, USA 29 March 2008 Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats John P. Sullivan Security and public safety agencies must address a range of current and emerging threats. These range from conflicts, strategic crime, terrorism, disease and natural hazards, as well as the confluence of any or all occurring at a given point in time. A range of intelligence disciplines and agencies are needed to address these threats and various phases of operations (i.e., pre-, trans-, and post-event). Intelligence fusion or the production of intelligence to anticipate and understand these complex threats is essential. This paper will provide an overview of the Transaction Analysis Model, Transaction Analysis Cycle, and Intelligence Preparation for Operations as ways to scan the horizon for indicators, monitor evolving threat potentials (i.e., alternative hypotheses), and forecast risk related to novel and emerging threats. Warning intelligence, strategic foresight, operational net assessment, and the co- production of intelligence for interdisciplinary response will also be discussed. Shifts in societal organization demand new approaches and structures for achieving security and developing intelligence to support operational and policy requirements. This paper looks at intelligence and warning to address the evolving threat and risk landscape. 1 Specifically, it will review key issues and discuss a sample of potential analytical approaches for warning intelligence. As a recent report by the Center for Security Studies in Zurich notes, “the context for warning is rapidly changing, particularly as globally networked threats overshadow their historical state-centric counterparts. Many of these threats can be defined as transnational, clandestine, networked, adaptive and connected (participates in the global network and the global economy).” 2 Surprises dominate life—individual and collective. In the public domain failure to anticipate the shocks to systems are known as intelligence or warning failures. They occur when governments, corporations and their bureaucracies (intelligence organizations and risk management arms) fail to sense or see the inevitable. Often predictive analysis is discounted since many believe the future is inherently unknowable. Yet, some things are known—in varying degrees—and warning and foresight is possible to help anticipate and shape future outcomes. Failure to anticipate the future is not simply a ‘failure of imagination’ or only the result of not ‘connecting the dots.’ It is much more complex! Many things contribute to intelligence/warning failures. Richard K. Betts call these the ‘enemies of intelligence.’ 3 A number of factors contribute to