A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles B. van Bree a , G.P.J. Verbong b, ⁎, G.J. Kramer c,d a Innovation Management, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands b Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Industrial Engineering and Innovation Sciences, IPO 2.22, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB, Eindhoven, The Netherlands c Shell Global Solutions, Amsterdam and Eindhoven, The Netherlands d Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Anorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, The Netherlands article info abstract Article history: Received 12 August 2009 Received in revised form 14 December 2009 Accepted 15 December 2009 Alternative vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen hold the potential to solve a number of challenges that relate to automobile use, such as climate change, deterioration of local air quality, security of energy supply, and high fuel prices. This article addresses the question as to how a transition to vehicles powered by hydrogen or electricity could take place. Recognizing that transitions result from joint development of technology and society, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted. The perspective is used to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship. Building on the analysis, two sets of scenarios for a transition to battery- electric and fuel cell vehicles are identified. In one set of scenarios, tightening emissions regulation stimulates carmakers to scale up experiments with alternative vehicles, moving them into the commercialization phase. In the other set, rising fuel prices prompt carmakers to first extend their current product line-up with plug-in versions, and later with battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. The two scenarios have different implications for the actors involved and for the requisite supporting infrastructure. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Fuel cell vehicles Battery-electric vehicles Socio-technical pathways Multi-level perspective 1. Introduction Personal mobility has seen a tremendous increase over the past century and has become an indispensable element of modern- day society. Much of this is due to the diffusion and improvement of the automobile [1]. Yet, automobile use is not without problems, ranging from congestion to its contribution to global warming. Some problems are specifically related to the use of internal combustion engines (ICEs): emission of pollutants that deteriorate local air quality and contribute to climate change, concerns over security of energy supply, and rising fuel prices. Substituting alternatives for fossil fuels holds the potential to solve these issues [2]. In this area, significant strides have been made with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). As problems related to automobile use grow more urgent, the case for radical innovation builds and the large scale adoption of such alternatives becomes more likely. Although these alternatives are promising, neither of them is technically superior over other alternatives, nor over conventional vehicles. Moreover, technical progress can only provide a partial answer to the question what their future will be. In the field of innovation studies, it is acknowledged that innovation is a co-evolutionary process [3]. Hence, this paper uses the socio- technical scenario approach to study the ways in which BEVs and FCVs might replace fossil-fuelled vehicles [4–6]. This approach views transitions as combinations of top-down (e.g. climate change, shifts in environmental values) and bottom-up (e.g. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) 529–540 ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +31 402472698; fax: +31 402444602. E-mail address: g.p.j.verbong@tue.nl (G.P.J. Verbong). 0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.12.005 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change