https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912917721744 Political Research Quarterly 1–13 © 2017 University of Utah Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/1065912917721744 journals.sagepub.com/home/prq Article Introduction The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the most conflict-prone regions in world politics. The region has experienced a long cycle of political violence, includ- ing interstate wars, domestic conflicts, and terrorism, which can be traced back to the demise of the Ottoman Empire and the Western incursion in the wake of World War I. The Arab uprisings that began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread across the region increased hopes for democratic transition and an open economy. Instead, we have observed Islamist politicians coming to power in relatively free elections and the old establish- ment’s harsh reactions to these electoral victories, fol- lowed by civil wars, coups, and third-party interventions. In the rest of the world, governments have struggled to interact with the new regional leadership and have faced criticism for tolerating Islamism as a nondemocratic ide- ology. For example, former US President Barack Obama was accused of secretly favoring the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which was labeled as a terrorist organization by the US and Saudi governments as well as by both the Mubarak and Sisi regime in Egypt, and considered to be inimical toward Christianity (Gertz 2015). We argue that the conviction that MENA states are run by belligerent leaders does not rely on systematic and reproducible data and analysis. We therefore ask the fol- lowing: Are the political beliefs of the Islamist leaders hostile or cooperative? What are the political instruments they use to achieve their aims—coercion or cooperation? What are their leadership types and strategies—will they bully their opponents or resolve their differences diplo- matically? What is the best strategic approach toward these leaders that will result in their cooperation? What is the relevance of such operational code analysis in terms of broader IR theories? To answer these questions, we focus on political Islam as arguably one of the most powerful forces shaping poli- tics in the region. We assert that one should understand political Islam and its leadership patterns if one needs to conduct business with MENA leaders. Specifically, we 721744PRQ XX X 10.1177/1065912917721744Political Research QuarterlyÖzdamar and Canbolat research-article 2017 1 Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey 2 University of Connecticut, Storrs, USA Corresponding Author: Özgür Özdamar, Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, A Building No: 306, Ankara 06800, Turkey. Email: ozgur@bilkent.edu.tr Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach Özgür Özdamar 1 and Sercan Canbolat 2 Abstract Political Islam and Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the post-Cold War era. Following the Arab uprisings, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), generally viewed as the world’s largest and most influential Islamist organization, has shaped the wider landscape of MENA politics. This study examines MB leadership by comparing M. Morsi of Egypt, R. Ghannouchi of Tunisia, and K. Meshaal of Gaza as examples of Islamist leaders to explain their political belief systems and predict their foreign-policy behavior. We use the operational code approach, a content-analysis software and statistical tests to conduct the study. Results show that the three leaders’ foreign policy beliefs are analogous to the averages of world leaders. Results also partially support the hypothesis that their foreign-policy propensities are similar to each other. We conclude that despite the conventional portrayal of MB leadership, these leaders use negotiation and cooperation to settle their differences in foreign affairs, and the best way to approach them is to engage in a Rousseauvian assurance game that emphasizes international social cooperation. Results also suggest important implications in terms of mainstream international relations theories. Keywords operational code analysis, leadership, political psychology, foreign policy decision making, the Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, political Islam, Rachid Ghannouchi, Khaled Meshaal, Mohamed Morsi