International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 05 Issue: 10 | Oct 2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1032
Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning
V Kranthi Sai Reddy
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Student, ECM, Sreenidhi Institute of Science and Technology, Hyderabad, India
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Abstract - In the finance world stock trading is one of the
most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of
trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial
instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper
explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The
technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used
by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock
predictions. The programming language is used to predict the
stock market using machine learning is Python. In this paper
we propose a Machine Learning (ML) approach that will be
trained from the available stocks data and gain intelligence
and then uses the acquired knowledge for an accurate
prediction. In this context this study uses a machine learning
technique called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict
stock prices for the large and small capitalizations and in the
three different markets, employing prices with both daily and
up-to-the-minute frequencies.
Key Words: Stock Market, Machine Learning, Predictions,
Support Vector Machine
1. INTRODUCTION
Basically, quantitative traders with a lot of money from
stock markets buy stocks derivatives and equities at a cheap
price and later on selling them at high price. The trend in a
stock market prediction is not a new thing and yet this issue
is kept being discussed by various organizations. There are
two types to analyze stocks which investors perform before
investing in a stock, first is the fundamental analysis, in this
analysis investors look at the intrinsic value of stocks, and
performance of the industry, economy, political climate etc.
to decide that whether to invest or not. On the other hand,
the technical analysis it is an evolution of stocks by the
means of studying the statistics generated by market
activity, such as past prices and volumes.
In the recent years, increasing prominence of machine
learning in various industries have enlightened many traders
to apply machine learning techniques to the field, and some
of them have produced quite promising results.
This paper will develop a financial data predictor
program in which there will be a dataset storing all historical
stock prices and data will be treated as training sets for the
program. The main purpose of the prediction is to reduce
uncertainty associated to investment decision making.
Stock Market follows the random walk, which implies
that the best prediction you can have about tomorrow’s
value is today’s value. Indisputably, the forecasting stock
indices is very difficult because of the market volatility that
needs accurate forecast model. The stock market indices are
highly fluctuating and it effects the investor’s belief. Stock
prices are considered to be a very dynamic and susceptible
to quick changes because of underlying nature of the
financial domain and in part because of the mix of a known
parameters (Previous day’s closing price, P/E ratio etc.) and
the unknown factors (like Election Results, Rumors etc.).
There has been numerous attempts to predict stock price
with Machine Learning. The focus of each research projects
varies a lot in three ways. (1) The targeting price change can
be near-term (less than a minute), short-term (tomorrow to
a few days later), and a long-term (months later), (2) The set
of stocks can be in limited to less than 10 particular stock, to
stocks in particular industry, to generally all stocks. (3) The
predictors used can range from a global news and economy
trend, to particular characteristics of the company, to purely
time series data of the stock price.
The probable stock market prediction target can be the
future stock price or the volatility of the prices or market
trend. In the prediction there are two types like dummy and
a real time prediction which is used in stock market
prediction system. In Dummy prediction they have define
some set of rules and predict the future price of shares by
calculating the average price. In the real time prediction
compulsory used internet and saw current price of shares of
the company.
Computational advances have led to introduction of
machine learning techniques for the predictive systems in
financial markets. In this paper we are using a Machine
Learning technique i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM) in
order to predict the stock market and we are using Python
language for programming.
2. Methodology
In this project the prediction of stock market is done by
the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Radial Basis Function
(RBF).
2.1 Support Vector Machine
A Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a discriminative
classifier that formally defined by the separating hyperplane.
In other words, the given labeled training data (supervised
learning), the algorithm outputs the optimal hyperplane
which categorizes new examples. In the two-dimensional
space this hyperplane is a line dividing a plane into two parts
where in each class lay in either side.
Support Vector Machine (SVM) is considered to be as
one of the most suitable algorithms available for the time
series prediction. The supervised algorithm can be used in