Test of Causality Between Oil Price and GDP
Growth in Algeria
Zouaoui Chikr Elmezouar, A. Mazri, M. Benzaire, and AEK. Boudi
Abstract This paper seeks to investigate the causal relationship between oil prices
and economic growth in Algeria. The empirical analysis starts by analyzing the
time series properties of the data which is followed by examining the nature of
causality among the variables. Algeria is an oil-producing rather oil-exporting
country. An increase in oil price increases economic growth. This study analyzes
how change in real crude oil price affects the real GDP of Algeria positively. The
empirical analysis involves testing the time series characteristics of the data series
(stationary) using ADF test and running the pairwise Granger causality test based
on EViews software.
Keywords Oil price • Economic growth • Cointegration • Granger causality •
Algeria
1 Introduction
Algeria is the second largest oil producer, after Nigeria, in Africa. It became a
member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1969,
shortly after it began oil production in 1958. Currently, the country is heavily reliant
on its hydrocarbon sector, which accounted for almost 70 percent of government
budget revenue and grants and about 98 percent of export earnings in 2011,
according to the International Monetary Fund.
In recent years, crude oil production has been stagnant, because new production
and infrastructure projects have repeatedly been delayed. Additionally, in the last
Z. Chikr Elmezouar () • A. Mazri • M. Benzaire • AEK. Boudi
Laboratory of Economic Studies and Local Development in South West
of Algeria, University of Bechar, Bechar, Algeria
e-mail: chikrtime@yahoo.fr; mazeriabdelhafid@yahoo.fr; benzairmebarek@yahoo.fr;
dr.boudi@yahoo.fr
A.R. Ansari (ed.), Advances in Applied Mathematics, Springer Proceedings
in Mathematics & Statistics 87, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-06923-4__19,
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014
205