International Journal of Research in Social Sciences
Vol. 8, Issue 12(1), December 2018,
ISSN: 2249-2496 Impact Factor: 7.081
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193
International Journal of Research in Social Sciences
http://www.ijmra.us, Email: editorijmie@gmail.com
Gross Domestic Savings And Economic Growth In Ethiopia:- An ARDL Bounds Test
Approach
Dr. Akshaya Kumar Mohanty*
Abstract
The interaction between gross domestic savings and economic growth is critically important
for the development policy. The wide range of controversies surrounding the direction of
causality between savings and economic growth motivated this study. Hence, the objective of
this study intends to investigate empirically the relation between gross domestic savings and
economic growth in Ethiopia using annual time series data spanning through a period of 42
years (1976 to 2017) obtained from MoFEC and annual reports of NBE. The study employes
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration test and the augmented
Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) so as to achieve
this objective. After performing robustness checks, ARDL bounds to the co integration test
concludes that Gross Domestic Savings and economic growth are co-integrated, and therefore
holds a long run relationship which exists between them. Error correction model also
identifies a short run relationship. The speed of adjustment has value 0.72 and 0.421 with
negative sign, which shows the convergence of saving and Growth model towards long run
equilibrium. In addition, the Toda and Yamamoto version of Granger causality test reveals
that causality runs from economic growth to gross domestic savings, implying that economic
growth precedes and Granger causes saving. Thus, the study rejects the Solow’s hypothesis
that saving precedes economic growth, and accept the Keynesian theory that economic
growth leads to higher saving. As a result, the study recommends that government and policy
makers should focus on more income policies that would accelerate economic growth so as
to increase savings.
Keywords: Growth , Savings , ARDL Bounds Test , Ethiopia .
I. Introduction
The rate of economic growth in any economy depends on the level of investment made in
different sectors of that economy; and there cannot be any meaningful investment without
saving. The slow rate of development in third world countries are usually attributed to the
low levels of national saving, It is observed that economies witnessing rapid economic growth
such as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, etc. also
characterized by high domestic saving rates during their developmental phase. Similarly,
many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America typically save at a low rate and
experience slow economic growth (Patra et al., 2017).
Ethiopia is among the low-income sub-Sahara African countries which needs fast and
sustainable economic growth. However, low domestic saving rate is consistently cited as one
of the most serious constraints to sustainable economic growth.
Currently, Ethiopia has adopted policy reforms of the five year Growth and Transformation
Plan (GTP) for the period between 2015/16 to 2019/20 to sustain rapid and broad-based
economic growth and eventually end poverty. Accordingly, a sound understanding of the
interaction between savings and economic growth in a country’s economy is strategically
important for the achievement of macroeconomic policy to sustainable economic growth and
hence higher standard of living of citizens.
*Associate Professor Of Economics, Department Of Economics, Ethiopian Civil Service
University, Post Box No: 5648, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia