Vol.:(0123456789) Social Indicators Research https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02070-7 1 3 The Variable Selection Problem in the Three Worlds of Welfare Literature Erdem Yörük 1,2  · İbrahim Öker 3  · Kerem Yıldırım 4  · Burcu Yakut‑Çakar 5 Accepted: 15 January 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019 Abstract Based on a quantitative meta-analysis of empirical studies, this article points out a sig- nifcant faw in the Three Worlds of Welfare literature, the “variable selection problem.” Compiling, classifying, and quantitatively analysing all variables that have been employed in this literature, the article shows frst that variable selection has depended more on case selection than on theory. Scholars tend to employ variables based on data availability, rather than selecting variables according to theoretical frameworks. Second, the use of welfare policy variables is mostly limited to the analysis of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, while studies analysing non-OECD countries, where data is limited, tend to use developmental outcome variables as a proxy. This tendency harms conceptualization and operationalization of welfare regimes, as well as blur the boundary between development and welfare regimes studies. Third, the use of original Esping-Andersen variables remains very limited, undermining continuity, compa- rability, and reliability within the literature. Keywords Welfare modelling · Case selection · Methodology · Comparative analysis · Welfare regime 1 Introduction Since the publication of Gosta Esping-Andersen’s classic The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism in 1990, the number of studies dealing with the classifcation and explanation of varieties of welfare regime have exponentially increased, leading to the emergence of a distinct literature on welfare regimes, also known as the “welfare modelling business” (Abrahamson 1999; Powell and Barrientos 2011). This literature is exceptionally empirical * Erdem Yörük eryoruk@ku.edu.tr 1 Department of Sociology, Koç University, Rumelifener Yolu, Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey 2 Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 3 Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, USA 4 Department of Political Science, Sabancı University, Istanbul, Turkey 5 Istanbul, Turkey