Foreign Policy Analysis (2019) 0, 1–20
Domestic Attitudes toward Regional
Leadership: A Survey Experiment in Brazil
F ELICIANO DE S Á G UIMARÃES
University of São Paulo
I VAN F ILIPE F ERNANDES
Federal University of ABC, São Paulo
AND
G ERARDO M ALDONADO
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
In this paper, we analyze citizens’ attitudes toward regional
leadership, employing two sets of survey experiments. Using Brazil as
a case study, we analyze the first set of experiments with two types of
regional leadership—structural and institutional—across three different
regional issues—economic integration, regime change, and regional con-
flict. We found that Brazilians do not support either type of leadership,
whether in regional conflict or in regime change issues, but support
institutional leadership in economic integration scenarios. In the second
set, we included specific South American countries both in regional
conflict and in regime change scenarios. We found that Brazilians prefer
Brazil to stay away from acting as a leader once neighboring countries
are named in the experiment. Our findings indicate that the literature
on regional leadership should incorporate the level of domestic support
to understand its implications to the exercise of regional leadership. We
embedded our experiments within the project “The Americas and the
World: Public Opinion and International Politics, 2014–2015.” We used
a nationally representative sample of eighteen hundred respondents
undertaken in 2014.
Introduction
Are public attitudes relevant to understanding regional leadership? Can a regional
leader exert its leadership without the support of its own domestic audience? Can
the levels of public support affect the exercise of regional leadership? The litera-
ture on regional leadership has not answered these questions properly, and it has
only shown scarce and aggregated evidence about public attitudes toward regional
powers. Moreover, the literature is silent about the type of regional leadership the
public tends to support or whether the interaction of specific neighboring countries
affects the way domestic audiences perceive regional leadership actions.
In this sense, we argue in this paper that the domestic support for regional lead-
ers’ initiatives is neither natural nor automatic and that the level of support varies
according to both the type of leadership and the interaction with specific neighbor-
ing countries. Our findings indicate that public attitudes toward regional leadership
are a key component for the establishment of regional leaders and that this aspect
should be incorporated in the debate. The level of domestic support received while
acting as a leader should affect the ability of democratic regional leaders to sustain
such a stance over time.
Guimarães, Feliciano de Sá et al. (2019) Domestic Attitudes toward Regional Leadership: A Survey Experiment in Brazil. Foreign
Policy Analysis, doi: 10.1093/fpa/orz002
© The Author(s) (2019). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Studies Association. All rights
reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com
Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/fpa/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/fpa/orz002/5320429 by Yale University user on 19 February 2019