American Journal of Economics 2018, 8(5): 209-212
DOI: 10.5923/j.economics.20180805.01
Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nepal
Sunil Kumar Chaudhary
*
, Li Xiumin
School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
Abstract This study examines the impacts of macroeconomic variables on the inflation in Nepal during 1975-2016. The
variables considered for the study is limited to the use of broad money supply, real GDP, Indian prices. The results suggest
that all variables considered are significant in long run implying that these variables are the determinants of inflation in Nepal.
The results are consistent with monetary theory. The money supply and Indian prices cause inflation in the long-run based on
an Ordinary Least Squares regression model.
Keywords Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Money Supply M2, Real GDP, Nepal
1. Introduction
The price level and its growth, inflation, is an important
economic indicator. Inflation can be defined as the persistent
rise in the general price level across the economy over time.
Inflation is an increase in the volume of money and credit
relative to available goods resulting in a substantial and
continuing rise in the general price level (Webster’s New
Collegiate Dictionary, 1973ed.). More precisely, inflation is
a substantial and continuing increase in the volume of money
and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a
substantial and continuing rise in the general price level.
There is an important distinction between this definition and
a popular misconception that results from our attempts to
measure the general price level. There are various indices
which measure the price level, such as; consumer price index
(CPI): wholesale price index (WPI); sensitive price index
(SPI); gross domestic product (GDP) deflator and so on. In
Nepal, there are three main price indices, namely: the CPI;
the WPI; and the Salary and Wage Rate Index (SWRI). The
main focus for measuring the cost of living is placed on CPI.
This is because CPI measures inflation impact which is the
final measure of prices on households. Through this
procedure, we tend to think of inflation as an increase in the
price indexes so that any increase in an index is labelled
“inflation”.
A continuous rise in price level is termed as inflation
(Parkin & Bade, 2001). Inflation is an ongoing process
whereby prices are rising persistently year after year.
Shapiro (2010) defines inflation as a rising price level.
If such a rise in price level persist for long it is known as
* Corresponding author:
sunilcitd@gmail.com (Sunil Kumar Chaudhary)
Published online at http://journal.sapub.org/economics
Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Scientific & Academic Publishing
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
inflation. Consumer price index, gross domestic product
deflator and other several indices measure the changes in
price level. The use of these measures is purposely applied
wherever appropriate. However, the rate of percentage
change in consumer price index as a measure of inflation is
widely used. We also here adopt this definition of inflation
for our purpose.
Inflation is everywhere and is interestingly touchy issue in
macroeconomics. All daily newspapers cover the news about
inflation. There is no dearth of literature on inflation. It is the
mostly discussed issue all over the world among policy
makers and academia. It is because of the fact that its effects
are widespread and severe and the impacts are far reaching.
Inflation has been the major concern for the government
since it has serious implication for the living of common
peoples. Moreover, it affects several macroeconomic
variables such as saving, investment, real interest, real wage,
real income and level of employment. Inflation depreciates
domestic currency and the imports become more expensive
which further push up the domestic prices. In short, inflation
is a burning issue in the macroeconomics and main objective
and function of central bank is to control inflation.
Table 1 shows that price index (base year 2010) has
increased persistently over the years. It has increased by little
over twenty-five times (from 6.4 to 165.9) during 1975-2016.
This means the purchasing power of the Nepalese rupee has
decreased by the same speed. The impact of rising prices on
the real sector is stylized fact. It constrains the rise of per
capita real GDP and thereby reduces the standard of livings
of the common people in the country. The stationary price
level has thus been one of success parameters of the
government. However, it has been a Herculean task to
achieve in developing countries. In case of Nepal, however,
there appear some positive signals in slowing down the
speed of price rise in the later years. For instance, CPI took
nine years to double from 6.4 in 1975 to 12.5 in 1984; it
doubled even faster within six years between 1985 and 1991
and it took eight-year period between 1991 to 1999. This has,