Journal of Safety Engineering 2018, 7(1): 23-31
DOI: 10.5923/j.safety.20180701.02
Trends of Weather Elements Induced Flights Cancellation
in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria
R. Dan-Okoro
1
, S. M. Hassan
1
, V. A. Agidi
2,*
1
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of Abuja, Abuja Nigeria
2
Nasarawa Geographic Information Service Headquarters Lafia, Nasarawa State, Nigeria
Abstract The Study assess the trends of weather conditions in aviation transport in Nnamdi Azikiwe International
Airport, Abuja. Records on visibility, rainfall, cloud cover; wind speed and two aspects of flight operations (flight delay and
cancellation) for a period of 14 years (2000-2014) were collected from secondary source. Simple regression analysis or trend
analysis was used to determine the trend of the weather parameters as influencing flight operations. Findings in this study
show that. Trends reveal that flight cancellation and delay have reduced drastically at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport,
Abuja as a result of installation of advanced navigational aids to take care of unforeseen weather obstructions. Individual
weather elements (visibility, rainfall, cloud cover and wind speed) on their own do not have significant effects on flight
operations between 2000 and 2014, however when they are combined, these weather elements affect aviation transportation
tremendously. Hence there is need for the installation of reliable and well equipped weather station with precise prediction of
weather elements not only in airports, but also in strategic locations across the country to enable the spatial analysis of
weather records across air routes.
Keywords Flight operation, Weather elements and trend analysis
1. Introduction
The effect of weather variation brought about by global
warming is a lot of concern to the aviation industry. Abass
et. al., (2012)) stated that several airlines have been rendered
moribund, while some offer partial services as a result of
extreme weather events. Weather is the state of the
atmosphere at a given place and time with respect to
variables such as temperature (heat or cold), moisture
(wetness or dryness), wind velocity (calm or storm),
visibility (clearness or cloudiness) and barometric pressure
(high or low). Stringer (1989) is of the opinion that weather
conditions can evolve at a rapid rate, over a wide spatial
extent when compared with other factors that may affect the
safe conduct of flight. This is apart from aircraft maintenance,
runway status, airspace sector access and support services.
Thus, the spectrum of weather information is an important
component for the safe conduct of a flight and the efficient
management of air traffic in future (Mirza et. al., (2009).
Weather continues to play a significant role in number of
aviation accidents and incidents. While National
* Corresponding author:
victor.agidi@gmail.com (V. A. Agidi)
Published online at http://journal.sapub.org/safety
Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Scientific & Academic Publishing
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports most
commonly find human error to be the direct accidents caused,
weather is a primary contributing factor in 23 percent of all
aviation accidents (Kulesa, 2002). Extreme weather events
present major challenges for transportation and are becoming
more frequent and intense.
Ayoade (2004) revealed that Poor visibility is the single
most important weather hazard to all forms of transportation
especially air transportation. Poor visibility can be caused by
thick fog, snow, rain, thunderstorm, harmattan dust, mist,
volcanic ash or smoke, urban smoke, low ceilings and even
smog. The Sosoliso plane crash in 2006 was partly caused by
poor visibility because of thunderstorm and rain when trying
to land in Port Harcourt airport. Investigation on aviation
accidents shows that 80% of aviation accidents take place
before, after or during landing or take off and is described as
resulting from human error. For example the ADC air crash
in 2006 was reported to occur between landing and takeoff
due to wind shear. (Culled in (Accident Investigative Bureau
(AIB) 2014).
Weather is the single largest contributor to delays in the
efficiency of flight operation. It is becoming the dominant
cause of delay in Nigeria. Flights can incur delays while
airborne or on the ground, for example, a late arrival of one
flight may cause a late departure of the next flight on the
itinerary of the aircraft (Schaefer and Millner, 2001).
Moreover, visibility and a minimum cloud ceiling, as well as
certain crosswind maxima are required for a safe landing or