Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Forest cover change in the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve and its future: The contribution of the 1998 protected natural area decree Juan José Von Thaden a , Javier Laborde a, ⁎ , Sergio Guevara a , Crystian S. Venegas-Barrera b a Instituto de Ecología A.C., Carretera Antigua a Coatepec 351, Col. El Haya, CP 91070, Xalapa, Veracruz, México b División de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad Victoria, Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas, México ARTICLE INFO Keywords: LANDSAT Markov chains Protected areas Retrospective and predictive analysis ABSTRACT The Los Tuxtlas mountain range harbors one of the last remnants of tropical rain forest on the coastal plain of the Gulf of Mexico. This volcanic range has a high degree of heterogeneity in its geology, climate and ecology, in addition to a very long history of human occupation. The original area covered by tropical forest has been drastically reduced by agricultural activities, and during the last four decades in particular, deforestation has been very intense. In order to protect the remaining forest, in 1998 the Mexican government created the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve (LTBR). While previous studies estimated deforestation rates and the amount of forest cover remaining in some areas of the LTBR, this is the first study to do so for the entire protected area. A retrospective analysis from 1986 to 2011 was conducted to assess the effect of the 1998 decree of the LTBR on deforestation rates, and to predict future changes in forest cover up to the year 2025 using Markov chains and cellular automata based on current deforestation patterns. The results show that shortly after the 1998 decree, deforestation rates in the LTBR not only decreased but reversed, however this trend did not continue. In recent years deforestation has again increased. Our projection shows that if current trends continue unchanged then by the year 2025 we might have lost close to 14% (ca. 9000 ha) of the forest cover that was present in 2011. The decree of the LTBR was part of the federal policy to protect biodiversity in Mexico and our results show that the strategy of establishing this protected area did work to protect tropical forest, at least temporarily in Los Tuxtlas. Also, our results show that it is not only possible to reverse forest loss within the ample buffer zone of the LTBR, it is also still relatively easy to achieve by promoting passive restoration. 1. Introduction Protected natural areas (PNAs) are established for the long term conservation of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services in a given area (CONANP, 2006). With the goal of protecting biodiversity and promoting sustainable development, biosphere reserves in Mexico have legal status as a type of PNA (CONANP, 2006). To date, 42 Bio- sphere Reserves have been officially decreed in Mexico, all of which are under pressure from deforestation, habitat fragmentation, pollution, species invasion, forest fires and illegal hunting (CONANP 2006; Ervin 2003; Figueroa et al., 2011; Figueroa and Sánchez-Cordero 2008; Mendoza et al., 2005). It is necessary to quantitatively assess these pressures and their temporal trends (both recent and previous) in order to fulfil the PNAs’ objectives. In 1998 the federal government published the decree that estab- lished the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve (LTBR) in southern Veracruz. As a result of the decree several actions and environmental projects designed to stop and if possible reverse deforestation within the reserve were initiated. The most noteworthy legal mandates of this decree in- clude: forest cover may not be changed to any other type of land use within the reserve, flora and fauna may not be interfered with or ex- tracted, and new towns and villages may not be established within the reserve (D.O.F., 1998). The reserve includes the largest and last rem- nants of tropical rain forest on the Gulf of Mexico coast (Guevara et al., 2004). The LTBR covers 155,122 ha (D.O.F., 1998), including three nucleus zones on the top of the highest volcanoes of the mountain range (9805 ha on the San Martin Tuxtla Volcano, 18,032 ha on the Santa Marta Range and 1883 ha on the San Martin Pajapan), all three sur- rounded by a single buffer zone (125,402 ha) that extends eastward to the Gulf of Mexico coast. In spite of the vast loss of forest cover in the region over the last 5 decades (Dirzo and García 1992; Guevara et al., 2004; Mendoza et al., 2005), the LTBR still harbors a very high di- versity of the native fauna and flora. Tropical rainforest on the lowlands and cloud forest on the highest parts of the volcanoes were among the most widespread types of original forest of this region, the largest areas of which occur in the reserve (Castillo-Campos and Laborde, 2004). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.040 Received 11 July 2017; Received in revised form 7 December 2017; Accepted 13 December 2017 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: javier.laborde@inecol.mx (J. Laborde). Land Use Policy 72 (2018) 443–450 0264-8377/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T