A three-dimensional stratigraphic model for the Messinian crisis in the Pannonian Basin, eastern Hungary I. Csato, * D. Granjeon, † O. Catuneanu ‡ and G. R. Baum § * Department of Geology, Collin College, Plano, TX, USA † IFP Energies Nouvelles, Reuil-Malmaison, France ‡ Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada § G.R. Baum & Associates, San Antonio, TX, USA 2 ABSTRACT A three-dimensional quantitative stratigraphic forward model is employed to investigate the controls leading to the Messinian events in the lacustrine Pannonian Basin of Central Paratethys, and the link between the Messinian salinity crisis in the Mediterranean and the late Miocene-Pliocene stratigra- phy of the Pannonian Basin. Subsurface geological data show that a prominent unconformity surface formed during Messinian time in the Pannonian Basin associated with a sudden forced regression, abrupt basinward shift of facies and a subsequent, prolonged lowstand normal regression. The low- stand prograding series filled up the shallow basin fast, while, at the same time, the marginal areas of the basin were subject to tectonic inversion. The Dionisos program used in this research is built on a nonlinear water-driven sediment diffusion process, and it employs multiple sediment classes, basin flexure and compaction. Four different scenarios were built in the experiments to test possible basin histories with different rates and timing of tectonic inversion. Each scenario was modelled in two versions: including and not including a lake-level fall in the Messinian. The results confirm that the Pannonian Basin in the study area has undergone a tectonic inversion since the Messinian, although the exact rates of uplift at different locations remain uncertain. The unconformity and the observed stratigraphic architecture and facies pattern could be modelled adequately only in the versions that applied a Messinian lake-level fall. Our research concludes that the Messinian unconformity in the Pannonian Basin was caused by an absolute lake-level drop, likely linked to the desiccation of the Mediterranean, followed by subsidence and normal regression in the basin centre and concomitant tectonic inversion and uplift along the basin margins. INTRODUCTION Research objective It has long been debated how the Messinian unconformity in the Pannonian Basin, Central Paratethys, formed when Lake Pannon was already isolated from the sea. The Neo- gene basement of the Pannonian Basin and the approxi- mate extent of Lake Pannon in Messinian are shown in Figs 1 and 2 respectively. This study formulates a three- dimensional quantitative stratigraphic model with the primary aim of analysing the possible causes for the gen- eration of the Messinian unconformity. Dionisos, a strati- graphic forward model, was used to simulate the basin-fill history and test possible tectonic scenarios by quantifying subsidence/uplift, sediment supply, lake-level changes and transport mechanics processes. Deciphering the tectono-sedimentary events in the Pannonian Basin during the salinity crisis may advance the knowledge on the geodynamic links between parts of the circum-Mediterranean region. The Messinian event has an enormous economic significance as well. The large-scale erosion triggered massive re-sedimentation processes and the accumulation of turbidites onlapping onto the Messinian slope in the Pannonian Basin system. These deposits form stratigraphic traps and can be targets of hydrocarbon exploration (examples of pinching out sandstone layers are found in the area between the Ja ´szsa ´g Basin, Derecske Trough and Be ´ke ´s Basin; see Fig. 1b for location). Associated fluvial incised valleys and submarine canyon fills may also form prospects of considerable inter- est for future exploration. The Messinian unconformity in the circum- Mediterranean The seawater evaporated in the Mediterranean Sea during the salinity crisis and thick evaporite units precipitated B R E 5 5 3 B Dispatch: 16.5.12 Journal: CE: Vinoth Journal Name Manuscript No. Author Received: No. of pages: 29 PE: Sathya Kala Correspondence: Didier Granjeon, IFP Energies Nouvelles, Reuil-Malmaison, France. E-mail: Didier.GRANJEON@ifpen. fr. 3 © 2012 The Authors Basin Research © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers and International Association of Sedimentologists 1 Basin Research (2012) 0, 1–28, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2117.2012.00553.x