12th AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science 2009 page 1 of 20 Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany Bird Diversity Modeling Using Geostatistics and GIS Abdulhakim Abdi* and Anand Nandipati *Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Campolide, Lisbon 1070-312, Portugal Email: m2008149@isegi.unl.pt ABSTRACT Portugal has a diverse landscape that provides a variety of habitats for birds. Many species of birds that breed in Portugal migrate south in the autumn and return in the spring. Portugal also serves as a wintering ground for several northern species. Since migrating bird species sometimes cover long distances and several habitats, they can serve as indicators of the overall health of the environment. This study investigate the possibility of using geostatistics to predict the diversity of bird species over a given area and using these predictions as a basis for the conservation of ecosystems. The study involves the use of 2007 data from the Portuguese common bird census conducted by Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves (SPEA) and using European Environmental Agency's CORINE Land Cover classification. Geostatistical interpolation techniques were used to build prediction models. GIS was used to extract both habitat information and the predicted diversity values. The results showed the habitat preferences based on the predictions. The combination of diversity modeling and habitat characterization can be used to aid conservation efforts in identifying key habitats of importance for each category. The study will also conduct comparative analysis of the interpolators and an assessment of their accuracy. Keywords: bird migration, biodiversity, conservation, kriging, inverse distance weighting, habitat characterization, breeding birds, CORINE Land Cover. 1 INTRODUCTION The 2002 Rio de Janeiro World Summit of Sustainable Development set a goal “to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction in the current rate of loss of biological diversity”. Therefore, in order to achieve this objective there is a need to identify species that are at risk or in deteriorating numbers. Breeding bird species occupy a variety of habitats, many of them created and/or altered by humans, and thus have the potential to serve as indicators of the sustainability of land use activities. Similarly, migrant birds react to changes in environmental conditions by making regional alteration to their migration routes and stopovers (Tankersley, 2004). Furthermore, these environmental conditions may correspond to rainfall patterns, food availability (Sanderson et al, 2006) and habitat degradation. BirdLife International 1 held its World Conference in Buenos Aires in 2008 and launched a “State of the World’s Birds” publication which declared that “common birds are in decline across the world, providing evidence of a rapid deterioration in the global environment that is affecting all life on earth” (BirdLife International, 2008). 1 BirdLife International is a global Partnership of conservation organisations that strives to conserve birds, their habitats and global biodiversity, working with people towards sustainability in the use of natural resources.