And then what happened? A retrospective appraisal of China’s Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP) Anthony L. D’Agostino * , Benjamin K. Sovacool, Malavika Jain Bambawale Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772, Singapore article info Article history: Received 14 January 2011 Accepted 10 March 2011 Available online 5 April 2011 Keywords: Rural energy Energy poverty Energy security abstract From 2002 to 2007, more than 400,000 photovoltaic (PV) solar home systems (SHS) were sold in north- western China under the US$316 million World Bank/Global Environment Facility-supported Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP). REDP has been hailed as a best practice example in SHS deployment for its unprecedented scale and the combination of technology improvement and market development support components to strengthen the country’s renewable energy industry. While the World Bank has itself conducted post-project evaluations, our paper presents the first independent review with the intent of determining if anticipated project impacts have been sustained. We adopt a case study format sup- ported by in-depth interviews with the project’s relevant stakeholder groups and find that solar home systems (SHS) provide monetary and non-monetary benefits to users and that their portability comple- ments the lifestyle of the region’s nomadic herders. However, we also find that purchasing decisions are still based on price more than quality, after-sales service networks remain weak, and households in REDP’s coverage area are gradually gaining access to hydropower-based grid electricity. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction China has made tremendous strides towards achieving universal electrification over the last 60 years. By 1978, 63% of the population had access to electricity, rising to 99% in 1998 and now to a present level exceeding 99% [1]. However, 8 million people located primarily in rural areas where low population densities and energy demand render grid connection cost-prohibitive still lack electricity access [2]. In such areas, renewable energy technologies (RETs) like wind and solar have been identified as least-cost options [3] and therefore the technologies of choice for many rural appli- cations. The installation of RETs as one rural electrification component also reflects China’s broader ambition of growing its renewable energy (RE) sector. The passage of the Renewable Energy Law in 2005 further catalyzed national support for RE with concomitant environmental and energy security benefits. Two years later medium- and long-term RE targets were established, including one for cumulative solar capacity reaching 1.8 GW by 2020 [4]. To offer perspective, 160 MW of capacity was installed in 2009, or less than 2.5% of global added capacity. Abundant solar resources on expansive tracts of land increase the feasibility of achieving solar targets. According to UNEP’s SWERA Programme, western and northern China receives 5e7.2 kWh/m 2 /day of solar radiation with an average of more than 3000 h of sunlight per year. The technical potential for photovoltaics (PV), an estimated 180 TW per the available literature according to Cherni and Kentish [5], therefore far outstrips current production levels. Additional policies at the provincial level have been introduced to spur local devel- opment, both in manufacturing and installation [6]. China’s status as a global manufacturing power in clean tech- nologies is a recent development. In 1997, the country’s production capacity for photovoltaics (PV) was only 5.5 MW in comparison to the 3850 MW of output in 2009 [7]. These industries had long been dominated by companies from Japan, Germany, and the United States whereas Chinese firms only became internationally comp- etitive after 2000. China has now secured a sizable lead ahead of these other countries and in 2009 invested more than US$33 billion in clean energy, edging out the United States for top position for the first time ever, with 10% of that sum directed towards solar energy [8]. However, domestic RE installation remains negligible against current production volumes; more than 98% of the 10.5 GW of PV systems manufactured in China in 2009 was exported [9], with Europe and the United States as primary destinations. Solar home systems (SHS) have been one RE application that enable households without grid access to use electrical devices for both productive and leisure purposes. With sizes ranging from 10 Wp to more than 150 Wp, SHS can be an affordable solution for * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ65 6516 8693; fax: þ65 6468 4186. E-mail address: sppald@nus.edu.sg (A.L. D’Agostino). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2011.03.017 Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 3154e3165