© 2018 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2018, XX, 1–13 1 Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2018, XX, 1–13. With 5 figures. Realized niche modelling uncovers contrasting responses to fire according to species-specific biogeographical affinities of amphibian and reptile species XAVIER SANTOS 1 * , , NEFTALÍ SILLERO 2, , FRANÇOISE POITEVIN 3 and MARC CHEYLAN 3 1 CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, R. Padre Armando Quintas s/n, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal 2 Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais (CICGE), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto (FCUP), Observatório Astronómico Prof. Manuel de Barros, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430- 146, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal 3 PSL Research University, CEFE, CNRS, EPHE, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry, IRD, Montpellier, France Received 7 September 2018; revised 3 October 2018; accepted for publication 3 October 2018 The responses of animal communities to fire are not well understood. We used modelling techniques to analyse how fire altered the habitat suitability of amphibian and reptile species across a 37-year chronosequence (1975–2011). The study was conducted at a biogeographical crossroads between the Mediterranean and medio-European bioregions. Using 9449 georeferenced locations, we examined the temporal variation in species-specific relative abundance, and built realized niche models with Maxent. We compared the habitat suitability index of Maxent models between two distant periods with a large number of records (1987–1989 and 2009–2011), and separated by two years with high fire activity, 1990 and 2003. Generalized linear models were applied to check temporal variation in habitat suitabil- ity indexes between the two periods as well as biogeographical affinity. Fire-history variables contributed strongly to the realized niche models. Due to high fire activity in the study area, habitat suitability decreased between the 1987–1989 and 2009–2011 periods for non-Mediterranean species. In contrast, most Mediterranean species benefited as a result of the land-cover openness created by fire. Modelling techniques are a useful complement to fieldwork for examining patterns in species responses to fire at biogeographical crossroads. The biogeographical affinity of species predicts their responses to fire. ADDITIONAL KEYWORDS: fire history – herpetofauna – Maxent – Mediterranean basin – realized niche models. Wildfires are among the disturbances that have the most severe impact on ecosystem function and com- position in many areas of the world (Bond et al., 2005). In the Mediterranean region, fire has promoted the development of specific life-history traits (Moreno & Oechel, 1994) and contributes to ecosystem dynamics, so is a fundamental element to understanding ecosys- tem function (Trabaud & Prodon, 2002). Furthermore, fire contributes to maintaining habitat heterogeneity and biological diversity at a landscape scale, i.e. pyro- diversity (Kelly et al., 2017). Nevertheless, in recent decades two new factors have emerged that disrupt the historical equilibrium between fire, land use and biodiversity: climatic change and the abandonment of traditional land uses (Pausas & Fernández-Muñoz, 2012; Chergui et al., 2018). There is general consensus that global climate change is increasing the frequency and extent of wildfires in many fire-prone regions (Piñol et al., 1998; McKenzie et al., 2004; Westerling et al., 2006). Moreover, in regions profoundly modified by human activity, such as the Mediterranean basin, changes in several land-use practices (e.g. agricultural *Corresponding author. E-mail: xsantossantiro@gmail.com Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/biolinnean/bly173/5209879 by guest on 27 November 2018