Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog Measuring and categorizing the water-related downstream risks associated with mineral extraction in Honduras: How severe, and how distributed? Nicholas Cuba a,b,* , Benjamin Fash a , John Rogan a , Anam Khan a , José-Luis Palma Herrera c , Rafael Enrique Corrales Andino c , Claudia Nataly Mondragón Rivera c , Sara Martinez d , Scott Sellwood d a Clark Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA, 01610, USA b Institute at Brown for Environment & Society, Brown University, 85 Waterman St., Providence, RI, 02912, USA c Observatorio Universitario de Ordenamiento Territorial, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, USA d Oxfam America, USA ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Extractive industries GIS Water Resource governance ABSTRACT Predictions about the spatial distribution of environmental impacts related to extractive industries have com- monly assumed an inverse relationship between the severity of impact and distance from the site of extraction. However, because of the salience of water to both extractive industries and other livelihood strategies, many severe externalities of extractive development are experienced in areas hydrologically linked to the site of ex- traction, though these areas may not be those closest to mines themselves. This paper uses cadastral and re- motely sensed data to model the spatial distribution of water, and extractive industries in Honduras and identify hydrological links between mines and downstream areas. Based on water availability, and the amount of up- stream extractive development, it describes vulnerability to water-related risks from extractive industries in terms of severity as well as its concentration, measuring how local or spatially distributed are potential sources of impact. A consideration of risks experienced by agricultural producers indicates that small-scale farmers and large, commercial growers face distinctly different types of risk, and suggests that each group may pursue dif- ferent strategies for mitigation. These strategies differ with respect to the spatial and administrative scales at which they would be pursued, as well as the degree to which they push for governance approaches focusing on spatially-defined, cadastral units of regulation or on broader regional and landscape impacts. 1. Introduction Mineral extraction is a spatially-intensive activity that can involve great reconfiguration of terrain at the locations where deposits are most promising. Yet it is also an activity that can introduce substantial changes to the flows of energy and matter and social relations within landscapes, often over expansive scales (Dudka and Adriano, 1997; Himley, 2013). Systems of mining governance that are based on the limited spatial extent of leases or concession areas, inside which firms are permitted to conduct extractive development, reflect a restrictive, activity-based focus on development, rather than a more spatially ex- pansive view that considers and can respond to the wider distribution of impacts. Recognition of the nature and magnitude of the environmental and social impacts of mining has brought about the countervailing in- itiatives of extractive firms' corporate social responsibility (CSR) programs, governments' multi-scalar schemes for distribution of some mining revenues, and national and international regulations regarding consultation and participation prior to and during project development (Bridge, 2004). A logic of proximity underlies the spatial scope of these programs, and it is typically the communities nearest to mine sites who are consulted during a mine's development, the intended beneficiaries of CSR programs, or the recipients of public revenue from extration (Arellano-Yanguas, 2008; De Echave et al., 2009; Jenkins and Yakovleva, 2006; Kapelus, 2002). Such programs are designed to compensate for anticipated en- vironmental impacts of mineral extraction, and they assume that such impacts will be of highest magnitude in the areas closest to the site of extraction. However, many of the most harmful environmental impacts of mineral extraction affect the amount, composition, and drainage networks of surface water (Elmes, Yarlequé Ipanaqué, Rogan, Cuba, & Bebbington, 2014), and the magnitude and spatial distribution of such https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102070 Received 28 February 2019; Received in revised form 15 August 2019; Accepted 15 August 2019 * Corresponding author. Clark Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA, 01610, USA. E-mail address: ncuba@clarku.edu (N. Cuba). Applied Geography 111 (2019) 102070 0143-6228/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T