1 TPP and regional economic implications for ASEAN Author: Nguyen Huy Hoang 1 Independent Researcher May 2017 Recent developments in economic realm of Asia pose significant challenges and opportunities on Southeast Asian countries, which might bring about both changes and new dynamics to the regional economic architecture. In October 2015, the US led-trade arrangement Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was signed among 12 Asia Pacific economies just one month before ASEAN declared its official establishment of ASEAN Community in Kula Lumpur, Malaysia, which will pave the way for a more integrated economy through out Southeast Asian region. Mean while, regardless of technical difficulties and domestic politics obstacles, 2 another ambitious regional trade pact – the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – is also on negotiating table and scheduled to be finalized in the time to come. These remarkable developments suggest us about more robust waves of economic integration in the region supposedly to shape regional economic architecture centralling around three significant regional players: the U.S - the long-time guardian over Asia Pacific region, China - the emerging superpower to regain its Asia predominance and ASEAN - the current leading driver of a ASEAN-centered region. Many regional obsevers question whether these economic mechanisms are complementary or conflicting in new economic structure. From ASEAN’s point of view, it is widely agreed that both ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and RCEP are seen as complementary ones since RCEP and AEC are both received with ASEAN’s positive consensus and active engagement with their all ten members actively participating and commiting themselves to finalize the deal. 3 Meanwhile, the case of TPP is quite different. ASEAN sees TPP from a more cautious approach. Some sees it as compementary, others remain concerned of it as a potentially competing or even a risk. The TPP is an international trade agreement covering the Pacific Rim region, which was eventually signed in October 2015 by 12 regional economies after its decade-long negotiation. The finalization of TPP needs official ratifications by national legislative bodies to be able to come into force. The trade pact includes the United States-the world largest economy, Japan-the world third, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Peru and Chile, making it the largest regional free trade area representing 40% of the global trade. TPP is a new approach to international trade in a bid to establish new rule-based regional economic environment, yet, its commitments on new issues and rules earn for itself both criticisms and praises. Notably, less than a half of ASEAN economies joined the TPP trade pact while the rest of ASEAN either shows cautious attentions or little enthusiasm, at least till the signing date. In regional context, ASEAN become one of key players in the region and has been highly credited, whether a myth or a reality in 1 Nguyen Huy Hoang is an independent researcher majored in International Relations having 8 years working with inter-cultural context in Southeast Asia, 4 years with humanitarian sector and 3 years with international organizations. He can be reached at huynguyen1504@gmail.com. The paper is copy rights of the author. Any citation or re-transmission need to ask for permission from the author in document. 2 See Kit Tang, RCEP the next trade deal you need to know about, CNBC, 14/10/2015 and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Issues and way ahead, the Diplomat, 30/7/2013. 3 ASEAN Framework for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ASEAN.