Chapter 1
Core Inflation Dynamics and Impact
of Demand and Supply Shocks:
Evidence from India
Priyanka Sahu and Naresh Kumar Sharma
Abstract This paper attempts to investigate the impact of demand and supply side
factors on core inflation in India. First, we empirically calculate core inflation
through conventional exclusion based measure (excluding food, excluding energy
and excluding both food and energy) as well as statistical measure (asymmetric
trimmed mean approach). Next, we empirically try to observe the association of
core inflation with macroeconomic variables through autoregressive-distributed lag
model (ARDL) and bound test approach. Empirical findings based on ARDL bound
test approach confirms the existence of short run and long run association of core
inflation with macroeconomic variables. Overall, the response of core inflation to
demand-side factors is high in case of real variables as compared to monetary
variables and its response to skewness-based supply-side factor is high as compared
to food and fuel inflation.
Keywords Core inflation
Demand shock
Supply shock
ARDL bound test
approach
1.1 Introduction
Targeting inflation within the specific range has become the major objective of the
monetary policy. Recently, there are two majors development in the macroeco-
nomics management in India. First, announcement of a new monetary policy
committee for the task of deciding the benchmark policy rates to target inflation at a
specific level. Next, formal declaration of inflation targeting as a new monetary
policy objective, where Consumer Price Index (CPI) acts a nominal anchor to target
inflation at the rate 4% with a band of 2–6%.
P. Sahu (&) N. K. Sharma
School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India
e-mail: priyanka.7mar@gmail.com
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018
A. K. Mishra et al. (eds.), Current Issues in the Economy and Finance of India,
Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99555-7_1
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