Int. J. Agricult. Stat. Sci., Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 233-241, 2012 ISSN : 0973-1903 PRE-HARVEST FORECASTING OF RICE YIELD USING WEATHER INDICES IN PANTNAGAR (UTTARAKHAND) Y. A. Garde*, A. K. Shukla 1 and S. Singh Department of Farm Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, B. H. U., Varanasi - 221 005, India. 1 Dept. of Maths, Statistics & Comp. Sci., G. B. P. Univ. of Agric. & Tech., Pantnagar - 263 145, India. E-mail : y.garde@yahoo.co.in Abstract The present article deals with forecasting of rice crop yield using time series data of yield and weekly weather parameters. The association between yearly crop yields and weekly weather parameters was studied by using Karl-Pearson’s correlation technique. The forecasting models utilized yearly yield and weekly weather data of University Farm at G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar. The techniques included development of weather indices which were used as explanatory variables (predictors) in the model. The technique was further modified by incorporating technical and statistical indicators along with developed predictors. Comparative studies of the developed models were carried out from forecast error percentage along with mean square error (MSE). The study proposed that modified model incorporating technical and statistical indicators effectively used for early pre-harvest forecasting of crop yield particularly up to two and half month before harvest. Key words : Rice yield (q/ha), Weather indices, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). 1. Introduction Forecasting opens menu window on to future. It is a medium guiding towards plans for the development of a better future as the forecasted visions gave an alternative to plan, design, shape and cope with future. Forecasting is true essence, is a branch of anticipatory sciences used for identifying and projecting alternative possible future. It plays vital role in most of our activities and in all we do concerning future. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is important food crop of the country and total area under cultivation is 45.4 million hectares (36.86% of gross cropped area). The total production of rice was 99.2 million tonnes during the year 2008-09 which constituted about 42.41% of total food production [Economic Survey (2009- (2010)]. Thus, development of methodology for forecasting rice yield will be very important. Much of the India’s population relies for its food supply on seasonal crops grown under rain- fed conditions. The productivity of crops in these regions is highly vulnerable to climate *Corresponding author. Received Aug. 11, 2011 Revised April 03, 2012 Accepted April 15, 2012