7 A Review of Real Option Practices Followed by Corporate for Expansion and Deferral Decision
A Review of Real Option Practices Followed
by Corporate for Expansion and Deferral Decision
Urvashi Varma*
© 2011 IUP. All Rights Reserved.
Real option is synonymous with financial flexibility. Traditional valuation has always ignored this
flexibility and has provided inappropriate estimate of the projects for decisions. This paper tries to
capture different types of real options and their valuations. The Black-Scholes model as suggested
by many researchers can be applied only to European option, but in this paper studies that have
valued American option using Black-Scholes approach with slight modification are also found. The
binomial lattice model is an alternative to value American option, but to avoid complexity binomial
tree is more preferred. Given the priori probabilities, decision tree approach provides a simplistic
method to value real options.
* Lecturer in Finance, BLS Institute of Management, Mohan Nagar, Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, India.
E-mail: urvashi23varma@gmail.com
Introduction
The valuation of a project is traditionally done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
technique. The Net Present Value (NPV) approach incorporates studying the present
value of cash inflows less the present value of cash outflows. NPV advocates accepting the
project when NPV has a positive value and rejecting it when the calculated value is
negative. The decisions made at the corporate level are not this simple. For example,
investment in a new technology does not just depend on its payoff and cost. It is affected
by other factors, like under which period of time the technology is adopted, what is the
risk of obsolescence of this technology, does this technology provide a platform for further
upgradation and so on. Therefore, in traditional valuation we are missing on the flexibility
associated with the investment opportunity. This flexibility adds value to the project and
increases its chances of being accepted (Kemma, 1993).
These flexibilities associated with the projects are referred to as real options associated
with that particular decision. The term ‘real options’ was coined by Stewart C Myers in
1977. As time progresses the uncertainty about an investment reduces with availability
of new information. An investment that is initially not lucrative based on traditional
valuation techniques may turn out to be favorable after the onset of new information. The
benefits of using real options are in terms of managerial flexibility. Hence, the use of
option pricing theory to value the complex investment decisions has found a sustainable
ground. There are situations in which a particular investment creates a platform for
follow-up investment in future. The success of a particular stage depends on the