ANDREW CARTWRIGHT KNOWING WHEN IT IS TIME TO GO: MANAGING RURAL DECLINE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE 33 ANDREW CARTWRIGHT Knowing when it is time to go: managing rural decline in Central and Eastern Europe Over six thousand Russian villages became totally uninhabited, since the last census in 2002, bringing the total number of empty settlements to approximately nineteen thousand—another 36,000 communities house less than people each. Nowhere else in the world is the pace and scale of rural depopulation as dramatic as in Russia (Wood 2012)—the collapse of the state farms and the loss of much rural industry encouraged many to leave. Moreover, the abolition of the residency system of propiska allowed greater freedom of movement within Russia. This decline in the rural population coincides with a significant reduction in the overall population—demographers estimate that the population of Russia will shrink by 17 million, by 2025, and over three-quarters of it will live in cities (Chawla, Betcherman, and Banerji 2007). Urbanisation is a global phenomenon, and it was only in the past five years that the world population changed from a majority residing in rural areas to a majority living in urban environments. The size of these new mega cities can create a host of problems—as well as open up new possibilities for rural dwellers. Where there are high birth rates and falling mortality rates, much of the population increase is concentrated in towns and cities. By 2025, for example, the Turkish population is predicted to grow by 22.3 million, with much of the increase being squeezed into Istanbul and its surroundings (Chawla, Betcherman, and Banerji 2007). At the same time, the overall rural population in Turkey is predicted to shrink by 2.45 million (UN DESA 2012). In many parts of Europe, and especially in Eastern Europe, the prognosis is that the overall population levels will shrink, and that there will be a significant ‘greying’ of the population. By 2025, for instance, the median age in Slovenia will be 47 and 20 per cent of Bulgarians will be over 65 years old (Chawla, Betcherman, and Banerji 2007). Consequently, the debates on the implications of demographic change in Europe are increasingly broad, addressing not only economic implications but also the consequences for political participation (Goerres 2009), for family relations (Czekanowski 2011), and for the organisation of education systems (Chawla, Betcherman, and Banerji 2007). Population changes clearly warrant long-term management. If projections are a sound base for planning, then many rural settlements may no longer require a school in a few years, although they may require a different kind of health service. However, the danger is that cutting back on public services will simply accelerate