A RESILIENT DROUGHT RISK MAN 1 Marcos Airton de Sousa Freita 1 Senior water resou 2 Economics ARTICLE INFO ABST Drough famine manag regions paper p related water techniq indexe (durati accord indexe (BMDI situatio Northe Copyright ©2019, Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas et al unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any m INTRODUCTION Marengo (2006), Salati et al. (2007), Br conducted studies on the impacts of global c many areas of Brazil, as Brazilian Am Pantanal and the Prata River Basin, showing temperature anomalies, and water balance fo The semiarid northeastern presenting sh important rainy season in the current cli warmer climate in the future, become arid. Salati et al. (2007) assessing climate variabi showed that the average temperature increase the period 1991 to 2004, when referred to the to 1990. For maximum temperature values 0.6°C increase and for minimum temperatu raise. The precipitation decreased 153 mm Nobre et al. (2004) indicate that the future b in South America may be affected by the com climate and land use changes, which can take savannization of parts of the Amazon and the Northeast Brazil. In relation to the obse ensemble model mean values tend to be Africa, the Northeastern region of South Ame Brazil), and northwest North America, and low latitudes of the Americas and southern The arithmetic mean streamflow of 12 IPCC ISSN: 0975-833X Article History: Received 20 th June, 2019 Received in revised form 24 th July, 2019 Accepted 16 th August, 2019 Published online 30 st September, 2019 Citation: Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas, Paulo B approach in the semiarid northeast Brazil”, Internatio Key Words: Drought prediction, Drought monitoring, Reservoir operation optimization. *Corresponding author: Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas RESEARCH ARTICLE NAGEMENT APPROACH IN THE SEMIARI as, 1 Paulo Breno de Moraes Silveira and 2 Gab urces specialist with National Water Agency (ANA) s student at the University of Brasília (UnB), Brazil TRACT hts in Northeast Brazil, which tend to intensify due to clima e, mass migration and social conflicts in this region gement, however, remain a central research theme. In water s such as the Northeast of Brazil, it is fundamental to have presents three components of the so-called SIGES (Droug d to drought prediction and monitoring, as well as many res scarcity situations. Statistical models, artificial neural ques were used for drought prediction. In order to perform es were adapted and incorporated into a droughts basic ion, severity and intensity), so that different mitigating dance with the values reached by these parameters. We uti es for this purpose: Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI); Bh I); Lamb Rainfall Departure Index (LRDI). Finally, some re ons methodologies are presented and discussed. The describ east of Brazil, especially Piauí, Ceará and Rio Grande do No l. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Com medium, provided the original work is properly cited. rito et al. (2017) climate change for mazon, Northeast, g precipitation and or the XXI century. hort but crucially mate could, in a To the northeast, ility in the region, ed by 0.6°C within e period from 1961 s they indicated a ure values a 0.5ºC m, a 11.6% drop. biomes distribution mbined impacts of e the system to the e desertification of erved values, the large in much of erica (northeastern small in northern n South America. models for the period 2041-2060, when compa scenario for the rivers of nort reduction (Milly et al., 2005). the influence of numerous atm in Northeast Brazil (Moura a 1984; Freitas and Billib, 1996; Kayano, 2007; Moscati and Ga 2018). Also several climatolog existence of a strong relat temperature distribution (SST - the tropical Atlantic basin t northeastern Brazil precipitatio associated with changes in the - Intertropical Convergence Zo Rao and Hada, 1990; Billi phenomena are indicative to b and extreme droughts and floo be characterized as a natural p from other natural catastro occurrences as floods, hurrica and end at sudden, being restric phenomena are used to have q duration, and is generally sp (Freitas, 1997). Drought is kno in semi-arid regions. The las particular region depend, how International Journal of Current Research Vol. 11, Issue, 09, pp.6968-6974, September, 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24941/ijcr.36577.09.2019 Breno de Moraes Silveira and Gabriel Belmino Freitas, 2019. “A onal Journal of Current Research, 11, (09), 6968-6974. Available online at http://www.journalcra.com RID NORTHEAST BRAZIL briel Belmino Freitas ), Brazil ate change, have repeatedly brought n. Its prediction, monitoring and r resources management in semiarid e tools to aid decision making. This ght Management System), the items servoir operation methodologies for networks and machine learning m precipitation monitoring, several c characteristic monitoring system actions could be implemented in ilized the following meteorological halme and Mooley Drought Index eservoir operation for water scarcity bed components were applied to the orte states. mmons Attribution License, which permits ared to the 1900-70 period A1B theastern Brazil showed a 15% . Several studies have indicated mospheric phenomena on rainfall and Shukla, 1981; Hastenrath, ; Uvo et al., 1998; Andreoli and an, 2007; Rusteberg and Freitas, gical studies have indicated the tionship between sea surface - sea surface temperature) along temperature and the semiarid on, as well as a decadal trend meridional position of the ITCZ one (Moura and Schukla, 1981; ib and Freitas, 1996). These be related to climate variability ods in the region. Droughts can phenomenon sharply differenced ophes. Unlike other natural anes and earthquakes, that start cted into a small region, drought quite often a slow start, a long pread out through a wide area own as a recurrent phenomenon sting effects of a drought in a wever, not only on the duration INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CURRENT RESEARCH A Resilient drought risk management