Economic Affairs, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 547-555, June 2018 DOI: 10.30954/0424-2513.2.2018.34 ©2018 New Delhi Publishers. All rights reserved Statistical Investigation of Production Performance of Cumin in India P. Mishra 1* , K. Padmanaban 2 , B.S. Dhekale 3 and A.K. Tailor 4 1 College of Agriculture, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Powarkheda, Madhya Pradesh, India 2 Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal, India 3 Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agriculture Sciences and Technology, Kashmir, J&K, India 4 Department of Statistics, National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation, Regional Research Station, Nashik, Maharashtra, India *Corresponding author: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com ABSTRACT Cumin is the dried, white fruit with greyish brown colour of a small slender annual herb. The surface of the fruit has 5 primary ridges, alternatively has 4 less distinct secondary ridges bearing numerous short hairs. The fowers are white or rose-colored in small umbels. By and large there has been considerable expansion in area and production of cumin in Gujarat, Rajasthan and whole India. Considering the productivity of cumin except Gujarat remaining state Rajasthan and whole India registered the negative growth rate. Moreover, in states and whole India diferent factors are infuencing productivity of cumin; by and large nitrogen is the major factor to signifcantly efect on the cumin productivity. Also forecasting has been done using comparing ARIMA and GARCH model for year 2020. Globally seeing the cumin seed demand this forecasting can be used policy implications and future trend of production and productivity of cumin in India and major states. This helps shows that cumin production reached 375 and 562 ‘000 tonnes in year 2020 for Gujarat and whole India respectively. Keywords: Trend analysis, factor of production, ARIMA, GARCH, forecasting The major countries that produce jeera or cumin seeds are India, Turkey, Syria, Iran and China. India is the biggest producer of Cumin Seeds in global spice market and new crop of Indian Cumin Seeds start every year February, this year crop expected 3.30 thousand metric tons out of this more than 70% of the crop consumed by domestic & Globally exported, since next new crop – 2017 have to go long path of 8 months and this year price are already high than comparing to previous years (Spices board of India, 2017). Syria stands second in the list with a production fgure of 25000 tons. This clears out the India is far more dominant in this context than any other country as it also possess the maximum area in the cultivation of the spice. Turkey and Iran have the same level of production i.e. 15000 to 20000 tons of cumin seeds and that makes them both stand third in the leading producer’s list. Though Syria, Turkey and Iran have a much lesser level of production as compared to India but these countries have an equally signifcant infuence in the determination of world jeera prices. In India, the level of production and the total area under jeera cultivation has increased signifcantly during the last few years. Rajasthan is largest jeera producing state in the country. It contributed around 1.2 lakh tons in the country’s total produce in the year 2003- 04 and it also have the maximum area under jeera cultivation i.e. around 2.25 lakh hectares. Gujarat is the second largest cumin seed producer in India. Rajasthan and Gujarat contribute to approximately 90 per cent of the production in the India (CRN report, 2016). Cumin seeds contain numerous phyto-chemicals that are known to have antioxidant, carminative and anti-fatulent properties. The seeds are an excellent source of dietary fber and also