The Economics of Human Trafficking and Labour Migration: Micro-Evidence from Eastern Europe. 1 Toman Omar Mahmoud 2 Kiel Institute for the World Economy German Institute of Global and Area Studies Christoph Trebesch Free University of Berlin Hertie School of Governance Forthcoming in the Journal of Comparative Economics Abstract Human trafficking is a humanitarian problem of global scale, but quantitative research on the issue barely exists. This paper is the first attempt to analyze the economics of human trafficking and labour migration based on micro data, using unique household surveys from Belarus, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. We find that individual trafficking risks are much higher in regions with large emigration flows. The reasons are lower recruitment costs for traffickers in emigration areas and, to a lesser extent, negative self-selection into migration. Our results also indicate that illegal migration increases trafficking risks and that better information, e.g. through awareness campaigns, might be an effective strategy to reduce the crime. These findings may help policymakers to better target anti- trafficking efforts. Keywords: Human Trafficking, Migrant Exploitation, Illegal Migration, Migration Networks, Eastern Europe JEL classification: F22, J61, K42, O17 1 We are highly indebted to George Gigauri from IOM for his support. We thank the Editor and an anonymous referee for providing comments that helped to considerably improve this paper. We also thank Satish Chand, Michael Clemens, Alexander Danzer, Dennis Görlich, Johannes Koettl, Ghazala Mansuri, Andreas Steinmayr, Rainer Thiele and participants of the 3rd IZA/World Bank Conference on Employment and Development in Rabat and the Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics in Sevilla for helpful comments and discussions. All remaining errors are our own. 2 Contact: toman.mahmoud@ifw-kiel.de , christoph.trebesch@fu-berlin.de