Civitas Gentium - 7:2 (2019) 113-36 © 2019 Faculty of Turkish Studies and Modern Asian Studies National and Kapodistrian University of Athens MACRO-HISTORICAL CAUSES OF MODERN MASS MIGRATION Dr Ioannis E. Kotoulas Adjunct Lecturer in Geopolitics Faculty of Turkish and Modern Asian Studies University of Athens Abstract: The great migration crisis of 2015 resulted in historically unprecedent- ed massive migration flows towards Europe that tend to repeat themselves over the years. This paper examines the gradual creation of a new periphery lying to the south and south east of Europe, with the latter being conceived as the core or centre of the system centre-periphery. The Northern Africa-Western Asia re- gion and the Sub-Saharan region form the demographic hinterland of Europe. In 2050 these two regions shall comprise over 3 billion people and over 6 billion people in 2100. Instability in the broader region is attributed to structural de- mographic factors, such as a Malthusian situation comprising overpopulation, limited carrying capacity and youth bulge among the populations and the states of Europe’s demographic hinterland. Keywords: longue durée, migration crisis, periphery, youth bulge, overpopula- tion, carrying capacity, hinterland, total fertility rate, societal security 1. Introductory Remarks Europe has experienced massive migration flows over the last years, especially after the manifestation of the great migration crisis of 2015, while there are indi- cations that this situation shall repeat itself in the immediate future. The influx of populations from the periphery of Europe is due to a degree to the creation of a highly unstable and volatile region in the southern flank of the European Union, further augmenting inherent political problems attested in this region for decades. The territorial dissolution of buffer states, such as Gaddafi’s Libya, or the dissolution of peripheral states, such as Syria, caused by international intervention or civil war, has led to increased migration flows towards Europe in the last period, still these are events of secondary importance in the context of macro-historical trends. What we are thus attesting in the last decades and emphatically after the 123