International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Applications 2016; 4(3): 103-108 http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/j/ijmea doi: 10.11648/j.ijmea.20160403.11 ISSN: 2330-023X (Print); ISSN: 2330-0248 (Online) Application of Markov Theoretical Model in Predicting Risk Severity and Exposure Levels of Workers in the Oil and Gas Sector Okwu Modestus Okechukwu 1, * , Thaddeus C. Nwaoha 2 , Ombor Garrick 2 1 Mechanical Engineering Department, Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Delta State, Nigeria 2 Marine Engineering Department, Federal University Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Delta State, Nigeria Email address: mechanicalmodestus@yahoo.com (Okwu M. O.) * Corresponding author To cite this article: Okwu Modestus Okechukwu, Thaddeus Nwaoha, Ombor Garrick. Application of Markov Theoretical Model in Predicting Risk Severity and Exposure Levels of Workers in the Oil and Gas Sector. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Applications. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2016, pp. 103-108. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmea.20160403.11 Received: May 9, 2016; Accepted: May 21, 2016; Published: June 6, 2016 Abstract: In this research, Markov theoretical approach (MTA) was used to forecast the severity of risk workers were exposed to in the oil and gas industry and to determine the average period of time it would take workers to get exposed to menace of less severity and the possibility of transiting to a state where risk is high. The perils were classified into four states which include: catastrophic, critical, marginal and negligible. A solution procedure for addressing industrial hazards was developed from Markov. Fifty (50) workers in Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC) were randomly selected for the purpose of questionnaire administration. Analysis of the data was carried out using QM software. The results showed that 56.66% of workers in marginal state would likely move to catastrophic state, while 43.34% of workers in marginal state would probably transit to critical state. Also 41.32% of workers in negligible state would move to a catastrophic state, while 58.68% of workers in negligible state would likely move to critical state within an average period of 2 to 3 years. It is therefore recommended that provision of personal protective equipment and appropriate healthcare facilities be made, risk assessment of all workers be continuously carried out; workers must be properly trained on regular basis and the enforcement and strengthening of existing legislation effectively carried out to dispel these hazards. Keywords: Markov Chain, Catastrophic State, Critical State, Negligible State, Marginal State 1. Introduction The human and economic costs of accidents, injuries and major industrial disasters have long been a cause for concern at workplace. Job hazard analysis (JHA) is a technique that focuses on job tasks as a way to identify hazards before they occur. It focuses on the relationship between the worker, the task, the tools, and the environment [1]. JHA is employed in the oil and gas sector, manufactory industries, construction companies, bottling companies etc. The importance of JHA is often overlooked and people tend to associate hazard analysis with multi-national companies and huge factories in the urban areas while less attention is given to JHA in smaller organizations. These view hindered the development of job hazard analysis in developing countries. In most industrial settings, workers are being subjected to array of hazards on a daily basis. There are different categories of workplace hazards such as chemical hazards, mechanical hazards, electrical hazards, industrial hazards etc. [2] [3] discussed the huge oil spill and explosion in 2010, at Gulf of Mexico as the largest incidental marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry, where eleven people were killed and several others injured. [4] in his research on workplace hazard came to a conclusion that there are over two million deaths that are attributed to workplace hazards and injuries annually, while 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) is lost due to these hazards and injuries. JHA on the safety of workers is concerned with the control of workplace risk, protection and promotion of working populations and the