INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH VOLUME 9, ISSUE 03, MARCH 2020 ISSN 2277-8616
5821
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Financial Analytics: Time Series Analysis Impact
of Crude oil Prices on Automotive Stock
A. Pappu Rajan, S.A.Lourthuraj
Abstract— The financial times series methods for analyzing data and predict future values based on fast available data and it consists of four
components such as seasonal, trend, cyclical and random variations. This study attempts to understand the impact of crude oil prices in automotive
stock. Crude oil being an important economic factor, studying it with respect to automotive stock is imperative its effect, in order to build portfolio. The
research problem is framed to reduce the uncertainty factor regarding crude oil. The study checks whether crude is a considerable macro-economic
factor to look upon during the investments. Moreover, it also contributes in constructing the investor’s portfolio in an effi cient way. This research problem
of the study is to identify the impact of crude oil prices on automotive stock of a company using various statistical tools and also to provide insights with
regard to investing in automotive sector and understanding the impact of crude factors on company’s performance. This day in financial analytics
innovation gives solutions for econometrics analysis, forecasting and simulation. For achieving the research objectives, the research has used the
statistical tool are Excel and Eview for data analysis. The secondary data were collected from different online resources. The time series method
employed to find the tests result implied that there was a significant relationship between the variables. This paper discusses the basic concepts of time
series analytics, related literature review, business analytical process, data insights and conclusion.
Index Terms— Time series, Business Analytics, Financial Analytics
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1 INTRODUCTION
Significant ascents in crude costs set the entire economies
caution and their effect can be felt on the nervousness of open,
costs of products, and furthermore on the execution of the
securities exchanges. This truly examines the development of
market as per development of crude oil cost, with the
assistance of specific criteria. The return on equity, profit
margin, market capital of these stocks are examined against the
changing unrefined petroleum costs. Financial analytics is an
analytical concept that provides different insights on the
business' financial business data. It helps give deep knowledge
and take strategic actions to improve business performance in
different vertical. Time series analysis is used to examine the
main changes connected or associated with the chosen data
point to other variables over the same time period in
successive order and historical values with associated patterns
to predict future. This paper discusses the relationship
between crude oil prices and Indian automotive stocks with
other variables which influences the crude oil prices
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2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Ankit Sharma (2018). et.al. they have explained the
estimation of the linear interdependencies between
international crude oil prices and stock market indices
of India for using vector autoregressive (VAR)
framework duration of January 2010 to January 2017.
The time series method used for the analysis are
crude oil futures prices, nifty index, and BSE energy
index.
S. Sathyanarayana (2018). The volatility in crude price
has influenced the uncertainty in the price expectation
in the country’s economy. Apart from that the study
concluded that the Crude prices was significant in the
volatility of the Sensex and have the competency to
transmit shock on Sensex. The study gave the idea
about the movement of the crudes prices and the
policies that affect the economy at large level and
particularly in stock market.
Harnesh Makhija et.al.(2016) in the study on Impact
of Oil Prices on Emerging Market Stock Indices, in
general volatility of stock prices in India and China
have marginal impacts on the volatility of oil prices in
the short run or long run. This research paper
attempted to analyze the short term and long- term
relationship between oil prices and stock market
indices of emerging markets for the period July 2005
to June 2015 by using Vector Auto Regression model.
The results obtained from the study suggest that
Sensex does granger cause oil prices in India whereas