Ocean Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 3 (2019) 287-328
DOI: https:// doi.org/10.12989/ose.2019.9.3.287 287
Copyright © 2019 Techno-Press, Ltd.
http://www.techno-press.org/?journal=ose&subpage=7 ISSN: 2093-6702 (Print), 2093-677X (Online)
Multivariate design estimations under copulas constructions.
Stage-1: Parametrical density constructions for defining flood
marginals for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia
Shahid Latif
and Firuza Mustafa
Department of Geography, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
(Received February 9, 2019, Revised July 10, 2019, Accepted July 22, 2019)
Abstract. Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often
demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random
consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint
dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume &
durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood
marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint
dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate
marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized
that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually
defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem
interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which
often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side,
model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise
investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might
reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having
different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature,
selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive
set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years
continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge,
Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative
empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are
undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.
Keywords: flood; block (annual) maxima; parametric functions; marginal distribution;
goodness-of-fit
1. Introduction
Basin perspective water resources operational planning, the management or either flood-related
infrastructure designing often demands accurate estimations of the flow exceedance probability or
Corresponding author, Ph.D. Research Scholar, E-mail: macet.shahid@gmail.com