1 Great (Power) Expectations: Charting the Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy Neil Thomas May 11, 2020 https://macropolo.org/china-great-power-foreign-policy-covid19/ Beijing is capitalizing on the COVID-19 pandemic to win friends and shape perceptions around the world. Yet China’s energetic “mask diplomacy” of sending medical equipment to nations in need is just the latest example in recent years of the country becoming more active in international affairs. Chinese capabilities are clearly rising, but what’s the end game? Questions of intent present obvious difficulties given a propaganda and censorship system that offers only a narrow view into deliberations inside Zhongnanhai. But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does telegraph its thinking through an official mouthpiece, People’s Daily, considered “one of the most important ideological signaling devices for the regime”. Trends in People’s Daily messaging can therefore signal changes in CCP policies and positions. Data on three questions related to COVID-19 diplomacy sheds light on changing perspectives in Beijing: 1) Does China want to play a larger role in the world? 2) Does China want to inject its norms into global politics? 3) Did China’s assertive diplomacy begin with Xi Jinping? 1. Does China want to play a larger role in the world? First, despite mishandling the novel coronavirus outbreak, China eventually brought the domestic contagion under control, prompting Beijing to launch a diplomatic offensive to provide aid, equipment, and expertise to dozens of other countries. A major theme in state media coverage of the campaign is China as a “responsible great power” (负责任大国). This framing places COVID-19 diplomacy within a decades-old discourse on establishing a stronger Chinese presence on the world stage. People’s Daily articles that mention “responsible great power” show the concept emerged during the Jiang Zemin era in the 1990s (see Figure 1). It then saw significant uptake under Hu Jintao after the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, before further elevation at the start of Xi’s tenure. Usage of the term surged this year, with the number of articles in 2020 already almost three-quarters of 2019’s total, suggesting that Beijing saw the chaotic global pandemic response as an accelerant for its longstanding aspirations. A related phrase—“great power responsibility” (大国担当)—also took off dramatically in 2020 (see Figure 2). In People’s Daily, this phrase is often used in conjunction with “responsible great power” but tends to be associated with actions actually taken to fulfill China’s potential role in global governance. That Beijing only recently began to tout “great power responsibility” could indicate an evolution under Xi, from China “talking the talk” to “walking the walk” when it comes to international leadership, with mask diplomacy a case in point.